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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

214 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games214100%By halftime42%In Q32110%In Q47535%In OT00%Stayed under11453%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands2411%Over cashed3617%Leader lost the game2512%
48% went over. Of the 100 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.

All 214 games

2023 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 SF -2 47 013233847 P KC Q3 22–25
2023 · Postseason
 SF -7.5 53.5 14314865 Q4 DET Q1
Late over
 31–34
2023 · Postseason
 BAL -4.5 44 14242427 U KC Q1 17–10
2023 · Postseason
 BUF -2.5 46 6304451 Q4 KC Q4 27–24
2023 · Postseason
 DET -6 50 6203454 Q4 DET Q4
Late over
 23–31
2023 · Postseason
 SF -10.5 50.5 3133545 U GB Q1
Lead lost
 21–24
2023 · Postseason
 BAL -10 44 6202744 P BAL Q4 10–34
2023 · Postseason
 PHI -3 43 10253441 U TB Q1 9–32
2023 · Postseason
 BUF -10 39.5 14283448 Q4 BUF Q1 17–31
2023 · Postseason
 DET -3 53 17384447 U LAR Q4 23–24
2023 · Postseason
 DAL -7 52 7345780 Q3 GB Q1 48–32
2023 · Postseason
 KC -4.5 43.5 7232633 U KC Q1 7–26
2023 · Postseason
 CLE -2.5 45 17385259 Q3 HOU Q1 14–45
2023 · Week 18
 BUF -2.5 48 0212135 U BUF Q4 21–14
2023 · Week 18
 GB -2.5 46 3132026 U GB Q3 9–17
2023 · Week 18
 LV -3 37.5 7242441 Q4 LV Q1 14–27
2023 · Week 18
 PHI -5 43 3242737 U NYG Q1 10–27
2023 · Week 18
 SEA -3 47.5 3192641 U ARI Q3
Lead lost
 21–20
2023 · Week 18
 LAC -3.5 35 7161925 U KC Q1 13–12
2023 · Week 18
 SF -5.5 40 14273341 Q4 LAR Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 21–20
2023 · Week 18
 DAL -13 47 7314548 Q4 DAL Q3
Late over
 38–10
2023 · Week 18
 CIN -7 37 14243145 Q4 CIN Q1 14–31
2023 · Week 18
 DET -3.5 47.5 13193350 Q4 DET Q1 20–30
2023 · Week 18
 JAX -3.5 41 10344148 Q4 TEN Q1 20–28
2023 · Week 18
 NE -2.5 28.5 39920 U NYJ Q1 17–3
2023 · Week 18
 NO -3 41.5 21344865 Q3 NO Q3 17–48
2023 · Week 18
 TB -4.5 36.5 0669 U TB Q2 9–0
2023 · Week 18
 HOU -1.5 48 10203142 U HOU Q1 23–19
2023 · Week 18
 PIT -3 34 7141427 U PIT Q4 17–10
2023 · Week 17
 GB -1 42.5 10263343 Q4 GB Q1 33–10
2023 · Week 17
 DEN -3.5 39 3161925 U DEN Q2 9–16
2023 · Week 17
 KC -7.5 46 10303342 U KC Q4
Late cover flip
 17–25
2023 · Week 17
 SEA -4 40.5 7314153 Q3 PIT Q1 30–23
2023 · Week 17
 BUF -15.5 40 20344148 Q3 NE Q1 21–27
2023 · Week 17
 CHI -2.5 39.5 7283754 Q4 CHI Q1 17–37
2023 · Week 17
 IND -3.5 42.5 10172743 Q4 LV Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 20–23
2023 · Week 17
 LAR -6 43.5 7243651 Q4 NYG Q2
Late cover flip
 26–25
2023 · Week 17
 PHI -12.5 48 10274266 Q4 ARI Q3 35–31
2023 · Week 17
 TB -2.5 42.5 7172036 U NO Q1 23–13
2023 · Week 17
 SF -14 48.5 10233037 U SF Q4 27–10
2023 · Week 17
 JAX -3.5 38 391926 U JAX Q2 0–26
2023 · Week 17
 BAL -3 47 17414875 Q3 BAL Q2 19–56
2023 · Week 17
 HOU -5.5 44 3232629 U HOU Q2 3–26
2023 · Week 17
 DAL -4.5 53 10102039 U DET Q1 19–20
2023 · Week 17
 CLE -7 33.5 27515157 Q2 CLE Q1 20–37
2023 · Week 16
 SF -6.5 47 8284552 Q4 BAL Q1 33–19
2023 · Week 16
 PHI -14 41 10233858 Q4 NYG Q3 25–33
2023 · Week 16
 KC -11 40.5 3242734 U LV Q1 20–14
2023 · Week 16
 DEN -7 37.5 7103049 Q4 NE Q2 26–23
2023 · Week 16
 CHI -4.5 42 7283443 Q4 CHI Q1
Late over
 16–27
2023 · Week 16
 MIA -1.5 48.5 10202942 U MIA Q2 20–22
2023 · Week 16
 JAX -1.5 43 3203642 U TB Q1 12–30
2023 · Week 16
 ATL -2.5 44 14203039 U ATL Q2 10–29
2023 · Week 16
 SEA -3 42.5 0131637 U Push 20–17
2023 · Week 16
 DET -2.5 48 14314454 Q4 DET Q4 30–24
2023 · Week 16
 NYJ -3 36 17344158 Q3 WSH Q4
Late cover flip
 28–30
2023 · Week 16
 GB -3.5 39.5 10333963 Q4 CAR Q4
Late cover flip
 33–30
2023 · Week 16
 CLE -3 40 7293558 Q4 CLE Q1 36–22
2023 · Week 16
 BUF -13 44 3243446 Q4 LAC Q1
Late over Lead lost
 24–22
2023 · Week 16
 CIN -3 39 7244245 Q3 PIT Q1 11–34
2023 · Week 16
 LAR -4 45.5 7243452 Q4 LAR Q1
Late over
 22–30
2023 · Week 15
 PHI -5 46 7132737 U SEA Q4
Lead lost
 17–20
2023 · Week 15
 BAL -4 42.5 3101730 U BAL Q4 23–7
2023 · Week 15
 BUF -2.5 49 7242741 U BUF Q1 10–31
2023 · Week 15
 LAR -6.5 48.5 3132748 U LAR Q2 20–28
2023 · Week 15
 SF -12 48 21345174 Q3 SF Q3 45–29
2023 · Week 15
 CLE -2.5 38 0142437 U CLE Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–20
2023 · Week 15
 GB -4 41 10234454 Q3 TB Q2 34–20
2023 · Week 15
 TEN -3 38 616223235 U HOU Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 19–16
2023 · Week 15
 MIA -7 35.5 7242730 U MIA Q2 0–30
2023 · Week 15
 KC -10 39.5 7243744 Q4 Push 27–17
2023 · Week 15
 NO -6 39.5 10132330 U NO Q3 6–24
2023 · Week 15
 ATL -2.5 32.5 0101016 U CAR Q4
Lead lost
 7–9
2023 · Week 15
 DET -5.5 49 0213859 Q4 DET Q2 17–42
2023 · Week 15
 IND -1 41.5 6273743 Q4 IND Q3
Late over
 13–30
2023 · Week 15
 CIN -3 41.5 1010204851 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over
 24–27
2023 · Week 15
 LV -3 36 21426384 Q2 LV Q1 21–63
2023 · Week 14
 MIA -13.5 44.5 7172355 Q4 TEN Q1
Late over Lead lost
 28–27
2023 · Week 14
 GB -5.5 37 7173446 Q4 NYG Q2
Late over
 22–24
2023 · Week 14
 DAL -3.5 52.5 10304046 U DAL Q1 13–33
2023 · Week 14
 KC -2 49 7213137 U BUF Q1 20–17
2023 · Week 14
 LAC -3 45.5 7101731 U DEN Q1 24–7
2023 · Week 14
 MIN -3 40.5 0003 U Push
Late cover flip
 3–0
2023 · Week 14
 SF -14 45.5 17243744 U SEA Q1 16–28
2023 · Week 14
 ATL -1.5 41.5 6222954 Q4 TB Q1
Late over
 29–25
2023 · Week 14
 DET -3 44.5 10233241 U CHI Q3 13–28
2023 · Week 14
 CIN -3 45 7284248 Q4 CIN Q3
Late over
 14–34
2023 · Week 14
 CLE -2.5 37.5 7213558 Q4 CLE Q1 27–31
2023 · Week 14
 NO -5.5 38.5 0172034 U NO Q2 6–28
2023 · Week 14
 HOU -3 33.5 002036 Q4 NYJ Q1
Late over
 6–30
2023 · Week 14
 BAL -7.5 42 1037426268 Q4 LAR Q1 31–37
2023 · Week 14
 PIT -5.5 30.5 10313139 Q2 NE Q1 21–18
2023 · Week 13
 JAX -10 41 728496265 Q3 CIN Q1 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 KC -6 44 10203346 Q4 GB Q1
Late over
 19–27
2023 · Week 13
 LAR -3.5 39.5 17233355 Q4 LAR Q3
Late cover flip Late over
 19–36
2023 · Week 13
 SF -3 46.5 6204161 Q4 SF Q2 42–19
2023 · Week 13
 TB -3.5 37 7102439 Q4 CAR Q4 18–21
2023 · Week 13
 IND -1 42 1730415059 Q4 IND OT
Late cover flip
 31–28
2023 · Week 13
 LAC -4.5 38.5 0666 U LAC Q2 6–0
2023 · Week 13
 DET -4 48 21314861 Q4 DET Q1 33–28
2023 · Week 13
 ATL -2 33 2152121 U ATL Q2 13–8
2023 · Week 13
 PIT -6 41 6132034 U ARI Q1 24–10
2023 · Week 13
 MIA -8.5 49.5 17385360 Q3 MIA Q1 45–15
2023 · Week 13
 HOU -3 47 10162639 U HOU Q1 17–22
2023 · Week 13
 DAL -9.5 47.5 17415576 Q3 SEA Q1
Lead lost
 35–41
2023 · Week 12
 MIN -3 43 06922 U CHI Q1
Lead lost
 12–10
2023 · Week 12
 BAL -3 49 3131630 U BAL Q2
Late cover flip
 20–10
2023 · Week 12
 KC -9 42.5 7283848 Q4 KC Q4 31–17
2023 · Week 12
 PHI -2.5 48.5 724386271 Q4 PHI OT 34–37
2023 · Week 12
 DEN -2 37.5 7202941 Q4 DEN Q1
Late over
 12–29
2023 · Week 12
 LAR -3 45 15293251 Q4 LAR Q2 37–14
2023 · Week 12
 NO -2 42 10232639 U ATL Q1 15–24
2023 · Week 12
 PIT -2 36 0101726 U PIT Q3 16–10
2023 · Week 12
 TEN -3.5 36 7202727 U TEN Q1 10–17
2023 · Week 12
 IND -2.5 44.5 13273047 Q4 IND Q1
Late over
 20–27
2023 · Week 12
 NE -4.5 36 071417 U NYG Q1 7–10
2023 · Week 12
 JAX -1 48 3203545 U JAX Q1 24–21
2023 · Week 12
 MIA -8.5 40 3232647 Q4 MIA Q2
Late over
 34–13
2023 · Week 12
 SF -7 43 10273744 Q4 SF Q2 31–13
2023 · Week 12
 DAL -13 48 7303055 Q4 DAL Q4
Late over
 10–45
2023 · Week 12
 DET -8.5 47 26294351 Q4 GB Q1
Late over
 29–22
2023 · Week 11
 KC -2 46.5 14243138 U PHI Q4 21–17
2023 · Week 11
 DEN -2.5 43 3192641 U MIN Q2
Lead lost
 20–21
2023 · Week 11
 BUF -8.5 39 6223538 U BUF Q2 6–32
2023 · Week 11
 LAR -2 46 7202333 U SEA Q1
Lead lost
 16–17
2023 · Week 11
 SF -13.5 42 7203441 U TB Q4 14–27
2023 · Week 11
 CLE -2.5 34 7101723 U CLE Q1
Late cover flip
 10–13
2023 · Week 11
 DET -8 48 7243457 Q4 CHI Q1
Late over Lead lost
 26–31
2023 · Week 11
 LAC -3 44 3202943 U GB Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 20–23
2023 · Week 11
 MIA -13.5 44 17273333 U LV Q1 13–20
2023 · Week 11
 WSH -7.5 39 10232650 Q4 NYG Q1
Late over
 31–19
2023 · Week 11
 DAL -11 43.5 7202743 U DAL Q4 33–10
2023 · Week 11
 JAX -6.5 40 7133448 Q4 JAX Q1 14–34
2023 · Week 11
 HOU -5.5 48 17313737 U ARI Q3 16–21
2023 · Week 11
 BAL -3.5 46.5 10314054 Q4 BAL Q1
Late over
 20–34
2023 · Week 10
 BUF -7.5 47 3233046 U DEN Q1 24–22
2023 · Week 10
 NYJ PK 36.5 9151828 U LV Q4 12–16
2023 · Week 10
 DAL -17.5 39 7284966 Q3 DAL Q2 17–49
2023 · Week 10
 SEA -6 44 9182855 Q4 WSH Q1
Late over
 26–29
2023 · Week 10
 ATL -2 43.5 3263948 Q4 ARI Q3
Late over
 23–25
2023 · Week 10
 DET -2.5 48 13415579 Q3 DET Q1 41–38
2023 · Week 10
 CIN -5.5 45.5 7173757 Q4 HOU Q2
Late over
 30–27
2023 · Week 10
 NO -3 41 6273846 Q4 MIN Q1 19–27
2023 · Week 10
 PIT -3 38 14303942 Q3 PIT Q4 19–23
2023 · Week 10
 TB -2.5 39 3102026 U TB Q2 6–20
2023 · Week 10
 SF -3 44.5 10163037 U SF Q1 34–3
2023 · Week 10
 BAL -6 39 20264164 Q3 CLE Q4
Lead lost
 33–31
2023 · Week 10
 IND -1 42.5 10101016 U IND Q1 10–6
2023 · Week 10
 CHI -3.5 38 10192629 U CAR Q4 13–16
2023 · Week 9
 LAC -2 42 14202333 U LAC Q1 27–6
2023 · Week 9
 CIN -2.5 48.5 21283142 U CIN Q1 18–24
2023 · Week 9
 LV -3 38.5 7242736 U LV Q1 6–30
2023 · Week 9
 PHI -3.5 46.5 14314551 Q4 PHI Q3 23–28
2023 · Week 9
 IND -2.5 45 0233040 U IND Q2 27–13
2023 · Week 9
 ATL -4.5 37.5 6214259 Q3 MIN Q1 31–28
2023 · Week 9
 CLE -7.5 38.5 0132027 U CLE Q2 0–27
2023 · Week 9
 GB -3 39.5 0101323 U GB Q2 3–20
2023 · Week 9
 NE -2.5 40 3243737 U WSH Q3 20–17
2023 · Week 9
 NO -6.5 41 14283441 P NO Q4 17–24
2023 · Week 9
 BAL -6 44 0203340 U BAL Q2 3–37
2023 · Week 9
 HOU -2.5 39.5 17274576 Q3 TB Q1
Late cover flip
 37–39
2023 · Week 9
 MIA -1 51 7213535 U KC Q1 14–21
2023 · Week 9
 PIT -3 36 10232936 P PIT Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 16–20
2023 · Week 8
 DET -7 46 3233740 U DET Q2 14–26
2023 · Week 8
 LAC -9.5 46 14313743 U LAC Q1 13–30
2023 · Week 8
 KC -7 45.5 10232333 U DEN Q1 9–24
2023 · Week 8
 BAL -9.5 45 14212855 Q4 ARI Q4
Late over
 31–24
2023 · Week 8
 SF -4.5 44 21242748 Q4 CIN Q1
Late over
 31–17
2023 · Week 8
 SEA -4 38.5 24313744 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–24
2023 · Week 8
 DAL -7 44.5 20425363 Q3 DAL Q1 20–43
2023 · Week 8
 MIN PK 41.5 7133434 U MIN Q1 24–10
2023 · Week 8
 ATL -2.5 35 10173051 Q4 TEN Q1 23–28
2023 · Week 8
 NO -2 44 14414865 Q3 NO Q3 38–27
2023 · Week 8
 MIA -7.5 46.5 14243448 Q4 MIA Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 17–31
2023 · Week 8
 NYJ -3 34.5 1010172023 U Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 13–10
2023 · Week 8
 JAX -2.5 41 6122730 U JAX Q1 20–10
2023 · Week 8
 PHI -7 42.5 10273469 Q4 Push 38–31
2023 · Week 8
 HOU -3.5 43 0132528 U CAR Q1
Lead lost
 13–15
2023 · Week 8
 BUF -10 43 3273442 U TB Q4
Late cover flip
 18–24
2023 · Week 7
 SF -6.5 44.5 7233639 U MIN Q1 17–22
2023 · Week 7
 PHI -3.5 51.5 6274148 U PHI Q2 17–31
2023 · Week 7
 DEN -2.5 43.5 392636 U GB Q4
Lead lost
 17–19
2023 · Week 7
 KC -5.5 47.5 6414148 Q4 KC Q2
Late over
 17–31
2023 · Week 7
 LAR -3.5 43.5 0122741 U PIT Q4 24–17
2023 · Week 7
 SEA -9.5 43.5 10242730 U SEA Q4
Late cover flip
 10–20
2023 · Week 7
 LV -1.5 37.5 7172442 Q4 CHI Q1
Late over
 12–30
2023 · Week 7
 CLE -3.5 40.5 21485877 Q2 IND Q3
Lead lost
 39–38
2023 · Week 7
 BUF -7.5 39.5 10162654 Q4 NE Q1
Late over
 25–29
2023 · Week 7
 WSH -3.5 36.5 0142121 U NYG Q1 7–14
2023 · Week 7
 TB -2.5 37.5 14202329 U ATL Q1 16–13
2023 · Week 7
 BAL -3.5 43.5 14283544 Q4 BAL Q1 6–38
2023 · Week 7
 NO -1.5 40.5 10233355 Q4 JAX Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 6
 DAL -1.5 49.5 14172037 U DAL Q4
Late cover flip
 20–17
2023 · Week 6
 BUF -15.5 42.5 36623 U NYG Q1
Lead lost
 9–14
2023 · Week 6
 LAR -7.5 47.5 6152535 U LAR Q4 9–26
2023 · Week 6
 PHI -5.5 41.5 7232634 U NYJ Q2
Lead lost
 14–20
2023 · Week 6
 DET -3.5 42.5 3132326 U DET Q2 20–6
2023 · Week 6
 LV -3.5 40.5 3162638 U LV Q2 17–21
2023 · Week 6
 ATL -2.5 41.5 10273440 U WSH Q2 24–16
2023 · Week 6
 MIN -3.5 43.5 3182532 U MIN Q2 19–13
2023 · Week 6
 CIN -1.5 45.5 14242730 U CIN Q4 13–17
2023 · Week 6
 SF -9.5 35.5 7172336 Q4 CLE Q1
Late over Lead lost
 17–19
2023 · Week 6
 MIA -13.5 46.5 14354263 Q4 MIA Q3 21–42
2023 · Week 6
 JAX -3.5 43.5 3273757 Q4 JAX Q2 20–37
2023 · Week 6
 NO -2.5 41.5 14273333 U HOU Q1 13–20
2023 · Week 6
 BAL -5.5 41.5 9213140 U BAL Q4 24–16
2023 · Week 6
 KC -9.5 48.5 3131627 U KC Q2
Late cover flip
 8–19
2023 · Week 5
 LV -1 43.5 3132330 U LV Q4 13–17
2023 · Week 5
 WSH -6 45 10304160 Q4 CHI Q1 40–20
2023 · Week 4
 LAC -6.5 49 14313441 U LAC Q2 17–24
2023 · Week 4
 PHI -8.5 44.5 1427386265 Q4 WSH Q1 31–34
2023 · Week 3
 LV -1.5 42.5 14203041 U PIT Q1 23–18
2023 · Week 1
 DEN -3.5 44.5 13232333 U LV Q1 17–16
2023 · Week 1
 WSH -6 40 10232636 U ARI Q1 16–20
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 100
Q2 21% 44
Q3 10% 21
Q4 19% 40
OT 1% 2
Push 3% 7
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 72% of 199 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 79% of 200 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over25100% 25
1–313100% 13
4–72793% 25
8–102638% 10
11–142952% 15
15–173023% 7
18–21339% 3
22+316% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.