Ravens @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff58°F15 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

10-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

8-5 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

BAL -4

✓ BAL W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 25–21 JAX

✓ BAL (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -4

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -4

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 4-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 23–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 3.6; 45.8 points a game (usually 46.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB @ CHI 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	19–20	L	U44
Very close	SF @ SEA 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	21–13	W	U42.5
Very close	NO @ SEA 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-5	13–10	L	U42
Very close	DAL @ PHI 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	51–26	W	O45.5
Very close	BUF @ NO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	31–6	W	U45
Very close	IND @ CHI 2020 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	19–11	W	U43
Very close	BAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	NO @ ATL 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	21–16	W	U45.5
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	47–42	W	O45.5
Very close	SF @ TEN 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–20	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL WLWWL	5-3	63%	1-1	5-3
JAX LWWLL	5-3	63%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL UOOUO	5-3	63%	10-3
JAX UOUOO	5-3	63%	8-5

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 45% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	8-2 80%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%
JAX	7-3 70%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 11–7 JAX BAL leads · 18 games since 1999 · BAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+2.2 →+5.1▲ 2.9#3

JAX+3.9 →+0.9▼ 3.0#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

BAL

Longer bar = better

JAX

Offense

◀ BAL better

#16

Defense

◀ BAL better

#21

+0.3 #10

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #13

64 plays #17

Pace

JAX faster ▶

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #4	22.3 #21	BAL
Yards / play	5.82 #4	5.61 #27	BAL
EPA / play	+0.06 #6	−0.03 #19	BAL
Success rate	47% #4	42% #15	BAL

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	JAX off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #9	16.8 #2	BAL
Yards / play	5.16 #17	4.34 #1	BAL
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.14 #2	BAL
Success rate	42% #15	40% #5	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	7.2 #2	8.2 #8	15.4 #5	5.8 #7	6.2 #18	11.9 #8
JAX allowed	2.3 #2	5.5 #9	7.8 #3	6.7 #30	7.6 #28	14.3 #32

JAX scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.2 #19	6.9 #14	11.2 #16	6.2 #5	6.6 #15	12.8 #6
BAL allowed	1.9 #1	4.8 #4	6.7 #1	2.5 #3	7.3 #26	9.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.