Bears @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff44°F18 mphgusts 26Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Chicago Bears

5-8 · Power #18

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

8-5 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

✓ CLE W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 19–22 CLE

✓ CLE (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -2.5

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLE -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -2.5

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 2.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 20–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 38, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 2.7; 35.3 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE vs JAX 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	31–27	W	O37.5
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	13–16	L	U35.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–13	W	U40
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	NYJ vs JAX 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	3–19	L	U36.5
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	GB vs TEN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–27	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LLWWW	5-4	56%	3-2	5-3
CLE WWLLW	5-3-1	63%	4-0	3-1

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI PUOUU	3-5-1	38%	5-8
CLE OUOOO	7-2	78%	8-5

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 51% of games with totals 35–41 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	3-5-1 38%
CLE	6-4 60%	5-3-1 63%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 5–3 CLE CHI leads · 8 games since 2001 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−5.2 →−1.2▲ 4.0#21

CLE+6.0 →+2.6▼ 3.4#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

CHI

Longer bar = better

CLE

#19

Offense

◀ CHI better

#25

#17

Defense

CLE better ▶

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.5 #29

65 plays #12

Pace

CLE faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	CHI off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #20	20.9 #14	CLE
Yards / play	5.01 #23	4.64 #3	CLE
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.18 #1	CLE
Success rate	43% #12	35% #1	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	CLE off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #12	23.8 #22	CLE
Yards / play	4.54 #29	5.18 #14	CHI
EPA / play	−0.14 #28	−0.02 #19	CHI
Success rate	39% #29	42% #11	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	4.2 #19	6.4 #20	10.5 #18	4.2 #16	6.1 #19	10.2 #21
CLE allowed	6.6 #31	4.1 #2	10.7 #14	3.4 #9	6.8 #24	10.2 #15

CLE scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.6 #22	7.9 #9	11.5 #12	4.9 #9	5.8 #21	10.7 #17
CHI allowed	4.2 #13	8.1 #27	12.3 #22	4.8 #20	6.7 #22	11.5 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.