Chiefs @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff51°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

8-5 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

3-10 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

KC -10

Push

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 25–15 NE

✓ KC (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -10

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -10

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 10-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 27–17; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 39.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 9.8; 48.2 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC @ LV 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-9	31–17	W	O42.5
Very close	BUF @ CHI 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & season form	-9	35–13	W	O40.5
Close	TEN @ HOU 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	28–25	L	O42.5
Close	MIA @ NYJ 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-8.5	34–13	W	O40
Close	SF @ LV 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-10	37–34	L	O41.5
Close	NO @ PHI 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar situation	-8	21–24	L	O42.5
Close	DAL @ NYG 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	21–6	W	U43.5
Close	DAL @ CAR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	33–10	W	U43.5
Close	TB @ CAR 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	32–6	W	U44
Close	KC @ DEN 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	34–28	L	O44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLL	4-4	50%	1-2	3-4
NE LLLLW	2-6	25%	1-2	2-4

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UUOOU	3-5	38%	8-5
NE UUUUO	3-5	38%	3-10

Went over in Q4. Of 27 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	6-4 60%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
NE	2-8 20%	2-6 25%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 7–8 NE NE leads · 15 games since 1999 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC−1.7 →+3.7▲ 5.4#5

NE0.0 →−3.0▼ 3.0#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ KC better

#28

Defense

◀ KC better

#11

−0.5 #28

Turnovers

Even

−0.7 #31

64 plays #15

Pace

◀ KC faster

62 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #11	20.9 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #7	4.78 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #6	−0.04 #15	KC
Success rate	46% #7	41% #9	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	NE off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #32	17.5 #3	KC
Yards / play	4.72 #28	4.93 #7	KC
EPA / play	−0.16 #29	−0.05 #12	KC
Success rate	41% #22	40% #6	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.4 #15	10.9 #2	15.3 #6	4.2 #16	3.0 #32	7.2 #29
NE allowed	4.5 #18	7.6 #20	12.2 #20	2.8 #4	6.0 #16	8.8 #8

NE scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.5 #29	4.5 #28	7.0 #29	2.0 #32	4.0 #30	6.0 #32
KC allowed	3.7 #9	5.4 #8	9.1 #6	3.8 #11	4.7 #6	8.5 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.