Raiders @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Mon, Dec 25, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff37°F13 mphgusts 24DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

6-8 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

9-5 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

KC -11

✓ LV W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 15–26 KC

✗ KC (84%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -11

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -11

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -11

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as an 11-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 20–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 40.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 10.7; 42.4 points a game (usually 46.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	34–10	W	O40.5
Very close	TB vs CAR 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11	41–17	W	O43
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11	21–32	L	O43
Very close	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11	27–16	P	O39
Very close	BAL vs CAR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-12.5	13–3	L	U41.5
Close	KC vs PIT 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	36–10	W	O44.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-11	35–13	W	O42.5
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	20–12	L	U43
Close	PHI vs WSH 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-10	27–17	P	O39.5
Close	BAL vs NYG 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-9.5	27–13	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWLPW	7-6-1	54%	2-4	2-4-1
KC LWLLP	4-4-1	50%	2-2	3-4-1

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UUOUO	3-10	23%	6-8
KC UOOUO	4-5	44%	9-5

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 45% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%
KC	6-4 60%	4-4-1 50%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LV 19–36 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 31 @ Las Vegas Raiders 17	KC -9	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV0.0 →−2.4▼ 2.4#24

KC−1.7 →+3.9▲ 5.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

#24

Offense

KC better ▶

#15

Defense

KC better ▶

−0.4 #23

Turnovers

◀ LV better

−0.6 #29

58 plays #32

Pace

KC faster ▶

64 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LV off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #25	17.5 #3	KC
Yards / play	4.88 #27	4.88 #7	KC
EPA / play	−0.13 #27	−0.07 #10	KC
Success rate	41% #18	40% #6	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #11	20.0 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.62 #7	5.18 #15	KC
EPA / play	+0.05 #8	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	45% #8	44% #23	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.6 #7	6.2 #18	11.9 #12	2.6 #32	4.5 #27	7.1 #32
KC allowed	3.4 #7	5.7 #10	9.1 #7	3.5 #9	4.9 #5	8.4 #4

KC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.6 #13	10.6 #2	15.2 #5	4.8 #12	2.8 #32	7.6 #29
LV allowed	3.8 #12	6.5 #13	10.3 #11	4.9 #20	4.9 #5	9.7 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.