Saints @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Thu, Dec 21, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff60°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

7-7 · Power #11

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

7-7 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -4

✓ LAR W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 23–26 LAR

✓ LAR (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -4

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAR -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 68%, covered 52% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -4

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 4-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LAR won 30–22; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 3.3; 39.7 points a game (usually 46). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE vs SF 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	6–33	L	U45
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	CIN vs IND 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	34–14	W	O45
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-3	16–10	W	U47.5
Very close	SEA vs NYG 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	27–13	W	U44.5
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	24–27	L	O47
Very close	DEN vs CIN 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	10–15	L	U44
Very close	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Very close	SF vs WSH 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	15–23	L	U43.5
Very close	CIN vs HOU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	27–30	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLLWW	4-5	44%	1-3	0-1
LAR LWWWW	5-4	56%	3-2	4-2

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OUOUU	4-4-1	50%	7-7
LAR UOOOU	4-5	44%	7-7

Went over in Q4. Of 33 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 15% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	4-4-1 50%
LAR	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 9–14 LAR LAR leads · 23 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.8 →+0.5▼ 0.3#12

LAR+7.8 →+0.9▼ 6.9#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

LAR

#16

Offense

LAR better ▶

Defense

◀ NO better

#19

+0.4 #8

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−0.1 #20

66 plays #5

Pace

◀ NO faster

65 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #13	22.1 #19	NO
Yards / play	5.05 #21	5.27 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #17	−0.01 #21	Even
Success rate	43% #14	42% #14	Even

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #9	19.1 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #8	4.98 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #9	−0.11 #4	NO
Success rate	44% #10	38% #3	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.3 #18	6.0 #20	10.3 #18	5.3 #8	6.5 #15	11.8 #9
LAR allowed	4.7 #20	6.2 #12	10.9 #16	3.6 #10	7.2 #26	10.8 #16

LAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.5 #15	7.3 #11	11.8 #11	4.4 #18	6.8 #10	11.1 #16
NO allowed	5.1 #24	6.7 #15	11.8 #18	1.8 #1	5.5 #11	7.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.