Jaguars @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff73°F13 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

8-6 · Power #12

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-7 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

✓ TB W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 23–22 TB

✗ JAX (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -1.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJAX -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -1.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 1.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 30–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 43, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 1.6; 42.9 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	20–13	W	U42
Very close	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	31–28	W	O42
Very close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	6–23	L	U43
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-1	22–24	L	O44
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	19–23	L	U43.5
Very close	LAC @ NYJ 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	27–6	W	U42
Very close	LV @ CLE 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	16–14	L	U42
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	30–31	L	O46.5
Very close	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	30–26	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWLLL	5-4	56%	3-1	4-1
TB WLLWW	6-4	60%	1-3	5-2

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OUOOU	5-4	56%	8-6
TB UOOOO	5-5	50%	7-7

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 41% of games with totals 40–46 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
TB	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 3–3 TB Series tied · 6 games since 2003 · TB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+3.9 →+0.5▼ 3.4#13

TB+0.3 →−0.8▼ 1.1#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

JAX

Longer bar = better

#17

Offense

Even

#20

#22

Defense

Even

#22

+0.1 #15

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.4 #6

66 plays #6

Pace

◀ JAX faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #11	20.7 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #17	5.60 #25	JAX
EPA / play	−0.07 #22	0.00 #22	Even
Success rate	42% #16	45% #27	JAX

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #20	22.4 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #19	5.62 #28	TB
EPA / play	−0.01 #13	−0.03 #19	TB
Success rate	40% #26	43% #20	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.9 #19	6.4 #16	10.4 #15	6.3 #5	6.1 #19	12.4 #6
TB allowed	4.5 #19	5.4 #8	9.9 #9	5.1 #23	5.6 #12	10.8 #15

TB scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.8 #26	6.9 #13	9.7 #23	4.4 #18	7.1 #9	11.4 #15
JAX allowed	2.4 #2	5.6 #9	7.9 #2	6.2 #30	8.0 #30	14.2 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.