Commanders @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff46°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

4-10 · Power #32

final

Final

New York Jets

5-9 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

NYJ -3

✓ WSH W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 21–24 NYJ

✓ NYJ (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNYJ -3

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNYJ -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 74%, covered 59% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNYJ -3

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 3-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 30–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 36, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 3; 39.2 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Very close	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Very close	TEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–19	L	U34
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Very close	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	TB vs CAR 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–18	L	O37
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Close	CHI vs CAR 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	16–13	L	U38
Close	DEN vs ARI 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	24–15	W	O37

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLLLL	5-8-1	38%	5-3	5-4-1
NYJ LLLWL	2-6-1	25%	2-3	0-0-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOOOU	7-5	58%	4-10
NYJ UOUOU	2-7	22%	5-9

Went over in Q3. Of 16 earlier overs in games with totals 33–39, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	2-8 20%	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%
NYJ	4-6 40%	2-6-1 25%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 3–4 NYJ NYJ leads · 7 games since 1999 · NYJ has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.4 →−5.0▼ 5.4#31

NYJ+1.0 →−2.8▼ 3.8#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

WSH

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#21

Offense

◀ WSH better

#31

#28

Defense

NYJ better ▶

−0.6 #31

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #32

65 plays #11

Pace

◀ WSH faster

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	WSH off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #23	20.5 #11	NYJ
Yards / play	5.13 #18	4.58 #3	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.09 #23	−0.09 #6	NYJ
Success rate	41% #19	38% #2	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	14.4 #30	30.2 #32	Even
Yards / play	4.27 #30	6.01 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.26 #32	+0.08 #32	Even
Success rate	34% #32	43% #15	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.8 #26	6.0 #21	8.8 #25	4.5 #17	6.8 #11	11.3 #14
NYJ allowed	5.7 #29	7.2 #19	12.9 #27	3.4 #6	4.2 #4	7.6 #1

NYJ scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	1.4 #31	4.4 #29	5.8 #31	3.1 #26	4.8 #25	7.9 #27
WSH allowed	6.5 #32	9.4 #30	15.9 #32	3.4 #7	10.7 #32	14.1 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.