Panthers @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Thu, Nov 9, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff45°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-7 · Power #31

final

Final

Chicago Bears

2-7 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

✓ CAR W

Total

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 22–25 CHI

✓ CHI (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCHI -3.5

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCHI -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCHI -3.5

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 16–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 38, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 3; 44 points a game (usually 46.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	CHI vs HOU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	23–20	P	O39.5
Close	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar total & spread	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Close	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Close	PIT vs TEN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–16	W	P36
Close	BAL vs PIT 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	13–16	L	U40.5
Close	LV vs NYG 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-3	30–6	W	U38.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-4	37–34	L	O41.5
Close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Close	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	20–24	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR ––LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
CHI WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	—

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR ––OUU	1-2	33%	1-7
CHI OUOUP	2-2-1	50%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 45% of games with totals 35–41 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CARlast 8	1-7 13%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
CHIlast 9	2-7 22%	2-3 40%	2-2-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 4–9 CHI CHI leads · 13 games since 2002 · CHI has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.1 →−4.1▼ 2.0#30

CHI−5.2 →−3.1▲ 2.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CAR

Longer bar = better

CHI

#28

Offense

CHI better ▶

#17

#27

Defense

CHI better ▶

#24

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

◀ CAR better

−1.0 #32

67 plays #5

Pace

◀ CAR faster

63 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #26	26.9 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.23 #31	5.42 #23	CHI
EPA / play	−0.16 #27	+0.04 #28	Even
Success rate	39% #27	43% #15	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #19	28.3 #31	CHI
Yards / play	5.17 #17	5.22 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	+0.05 #30	CHI
Success rate	45% #11	47% #29	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.4 #21	5.3 #24	8.6 #26	2.4 #29	6.5 #13	8.9 #22
CHI allowed	5.3 #22	8.0 #23	13.3 #24	6.9 #31	6.7 #22	13.6 #29

CHI scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	3.8 #19	7.9 #12	11.7 #13	2.8 #27	6.4 #14	9.2 #20
CAR allowed	2.5 #4	11.0 #32	13.5 #25	5.9 #28	8.9 #30	14.8 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.