Texans @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff53°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

4-4 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

5-3 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

✓ HOU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 22–27 CIN

✗ CIN (68%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -5.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -5.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 5.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: HOU won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 5.6; 55.7 points a game (usually 47.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs LV 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	17–26	L	U46.5
Very close	GB vs DET 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	16–20	L	U48
Very close	DEN vs LV 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	24–34	L	O45
Very close	SF vs MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-5	33–17	W	O45.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	37–48	L	O47
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–37	L	O47.5
Very close	NO vs SEA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	39–32	W	O45
Close	TEN vs CHI 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	24–17	W	U46.5
Close	CIN vs ATL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	35–17	W	O48
Close	PIT vs SEA 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	23–20	L	P43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU ––WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-0
CIN ––WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU ––UUO	1-2	33%	4-4
CIN ––UOU	1-2	33%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 13 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 15% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 8	4-4 50%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
CINlast 8	5-3 63%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 9–6 CIN HOU leads · 15 games since 2002 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.2 →+0.6▲ 2.8#14

CIN−6.0 →+0.3▲ 6.3#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

HOU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#13

Offense

◀ HOU better

#19

#18

Defense

◀ HOU better

#23

+0.6 #7

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+1.1 #1

64 plays #14

Pace

◀ HOU faster

62 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #11	20.3 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.49 #9	5.89 #31	HOU
EPA / play	+0.02 #9	−0.02 #18	HOU
Success rate	41% #22	47% #30	HOU

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #23	20.6 #15	HOU
Yards / play	4.70 #27	5.20 #18	HOU
EPA / play	−0.04 #16	−0.01 #23	CIN
Success rate	45% #9	43% #16	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.1 #14	6.4 #19	11.5 #15	3.9 #15	8.0 #5	11.9 #7
CIN allowed	4.3 #14	7.5 #20	11.8 #19	3.5 #11	5.0 #11	8.5 #9

CIN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	6.0 #8	4.6 #27	10.6 #19	3.8 #18	5.0 #25	8.8 #23
HOU allowed	5.6 #25	3.8 #2	9.4 #4	6.1 #29	5.1 #13	11.3 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.