Falcons @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

4-5 · Power #24

final

Final

Arizona Cardinals

1-8 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -2

✓ ARI W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 25–23 ARI

✗ ATL (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseATL -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 25–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 2.7; 43.3 points a game (usually 45.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ CAR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	27–13	W	U45
Very close	TEN @ WSH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	21–17	W	U43
Very close	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	23–10	W	U41
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	19–23	L	U43.5
Very close	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Very close	LAC @ DEN 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	30–31	L	O44.5
Very close	ATL @ CAR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	15–25	L	U41.5
Very close	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Close	SF @ DAL 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	33–41	L	O45.5
Close	PHI @ DET 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	44–6	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL –LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-3
ARI –LLWL	2-3	40%	1-0	2-3

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL –UUOO	2-2	50%	4-5
ARI –UUOU	1-4	20%	1-8

Went over in Q4. Of 16 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 9	4-5 44%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%
ARIlast 9	1-8 11%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 11–5 ARI ATL leads · 16 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →−0.7▼ 2.8#18

ARI−0.4 →−4.4▼ 4.0#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ATL

Longer bar = better

ARI

#22

Offense

◀ ATL better

#27

#10

Defense

◀ ATL better

#29

−0.8 #31

Turnovers

ARI better ▶

−0.2 #18

66 plays #5

Pace

◀ ATL faster

61 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #25	26.7 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #16	5.44 #24	ATL
EPA / play	−0.11 #24	+0.06 #31	ATL
Success rate	41% #21	47% #31	ATL

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	ARI off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #28	21.3 #18	ATL
Yards / play	4.74 #26	4.89 #5	ATL
EPA / play	−0.17 #28	−0.05 #12	ATL
Success rate	39% #27	39% #4	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.3 #22	3.3 #31	6.7 #30	3.6 #21	8.2 #3	11.8 #8
ARI allowed	4.9 #20	6.8 #15	11.7 #15	5.7 #26	9.3 #32	15.0 #32

ARI scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	3.6 #21	8.0 #8	11.6 #13	2.6 #28	2.7 #31	5.2 #32
ATL allowed	3.7 #10	8.2 #26	11.9 #19	5.0 #22	4.4 #8	9.4 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.