Commanders @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff54°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

4-5 · Power #32

final

Final

Seattle Seahawks

5-3 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -6

✓ WSH W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 23–28 SEA

✓ SEA (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSEA -6

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSEA -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSEA -6

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 6-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SEA won 29–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 44, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 6.2; 43.4 points a game (usually 47.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	16–10	L	U44
Very close	DET vs LV 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	26–14	W	U46
Very close	LAC vs CAR 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	16–21	L	U43.5
Very close	SEA vs LAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	19–16	L	U43
Very close	LAC vs LAR 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–10	W	P41
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Very close	GB vs PIT 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	27–17	W	U45
Very close	LV vs CHI 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	9–20	L	U46
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	31–37	L	O45.5
Very close	NO vs SEA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	39–32	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLPW	4-4-1	50%	4-1	4-1-1
SEA –LWPL	1-2-1	33%	1-0-1	1-0-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OUUOU	3-4	43%	4-5
SEA –UUOU	1-3	25%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 41–47, 13% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 9	4-5 44%	4-4-1 50%	3-4 43%
SEAlast 8	5-3 63%	1-2-1 33%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 9–7 SEA WSH leads · 16 games since 2001 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.4 →−2.9▼ 3.3#25

SEA−7.8 →−0.1▲ 7.7#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WSH

Longer bar = better

SEA

#20

Offense

SEA better ▶

#12

#25

Defense

SEA better ▶

#16

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

SEA better ▶

+0.3 #10

65 plays #11

Pace

◀ WSH faster

58 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #18	21.9 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.09 #13	SEA
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	−0.04 #14	SEA
Success rate	42% #20	43% #14	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #17	27.2 #31	SEA
Yards / play	5.36 #10	5.68 #29	SEA
EPA / play	0.00 #12	+0.04 #30	SEA
Success rate	45% #8	41% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.3 #22	6.4 #18	9.8 #23	4.7 #8	6.8 #8	11.4 #10
SEA allowed	4.3 #16	7.3 #16	11.5 #12	4.5 #18	5.9 #15	10.4 #19

SEA scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	6.4 #6	4.9 #26	11.3 #16	4.1 #17	5.3 #23	9.4 #20
WSH allowed	6.0 #28	9.0 #29	15.0 #32	3.0 #7	8.9 #31	11.9 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.