Commanders @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff61°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

3-5 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

2-6 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

NE -2.5

✓ WSH W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 22–24 NE

✗ NE (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNE -2.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNE -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNE -2.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 2.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 40, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 2.9; 42.1 points a game (usually 46.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs IND 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–27	L	O42
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Very close	NYG vs WSH 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	20–19	L	U42.5
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	CHI vs DET 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–14	W	U41.5
Very close	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Very close	NYG vs CHI 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–12	W	U39
Very close	CHI vs HOU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	23–20	P	O39.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Close	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–32	L	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLWLP	3-4-1	43%	3-1	3-1-1
NE ––LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	—

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUUO	3-3	50%	3-5
NE ––UOO	2-1	67%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 30% of games with totals 37–43 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 8	3-5 38%	3-4-1 43%	3-3 50%
NElast 8	2-6 25%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 2–4 NE NE leads · 6 games since 2003 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.4 →−3.1▼ 3.5#27

NE0.0 →−2.9▼ 2.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WSH

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

◀ WSH better

#28

#25

Defense

NE better ▶

#17

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

−0.8 #29

64 plays #16

Pace

◀ WSH faster

61 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #18	26.0 #26	WSH
Yards / play	5.03 #21	4.88 #8	NE
EPA / play	−0.08 #22	+0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	41% #20	42% #9	NE

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #31	28.5 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.69 #27	5.73 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.18 #30	+0.05 #29	Even
Success rate	41% #22	42% #10	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.4 #21	6.4 #19	9.8 #22	4.0 #15	7.6 #5	11.6 #8
NE allowed	5.8 #25	9.0 #28	14.8 #29	3.3 #10	8.0 #27	11.3 #25

NE scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.9 #26	3.8 #30	6.6 #29	2.0 #30	6.1 #15	8.1 #27
WSH allowed	6.8 #31	8.4 #23	15.1 #31	3.0 #8	10.0 #32	13.0 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.