Bears @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

2-6 · Power #18

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

4-4 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -6.5

✓ NO W

Total

Push · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 22–29 NO

✓ NO (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -6.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -6.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 6.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NO won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points landed on 41, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 6.6; 38.9 points a game (usually 47.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs CAR 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	42–21	W	O42.5
Very close	LAC vs CAR 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	16–21	L	U43.5
Close	LAC vs LAR 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	31–10	W	P41
Close	JAX vs TEN 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-6	20–16	L	U40
Close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Close	ATL vs ARI 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	20–19	L	U40.5
Close	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	16–10	L	U44
Close	NO vs ATL 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	25–27	L	O43
Close	NE vs IND 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-5	26–3	W	U40
Close	GB vs NYJ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	10–27	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI –WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2
NO ––LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI –OUOU	2-2	50%	2-6
NO ––UOO	2-1	67%	4-4

In 27 games with totals 38–44, 33% went over; 11% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 8	2-6 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
NOlast 8	4-4 50%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 6–11 NO NO leads · 17 games since 1999 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−5.2 →−3.3▲ 1.9#28

NO+0.8 →+1.3▲ 0.5#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CHI

Longer bar = better

#17

Offense

Even

#18

#24

Defense

NO better ▶

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

NO better ▶

+0.4 #10

63 plays #18

Pace

NO faster ▶

70 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	CHI off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #19	19.3 #9	NO
Yards / play	5.10 #19	4.87 #6	NO
EPA / play	−0.06 #20	−0.12 #4	NO
Success rate	45% #9	38% #2	NO

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #17	27.3 #28	NO
Yards / play	4.99 #22	5.49 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #14	+0.05 #28	NO
Success rate	42% #18	43% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	3.4 #21	8.0 #10	11.4 #16	2.8 #25	7.3 #8	10.0 #17
NO allowed	3.8 #11	6.3 #11	10.0 #9	1.6 #2	7.6 #26	9.3 #12

NO scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.0 #12	6.3 #20	11.3 #17	4.5 #12	5.6 #21	10.1 #15
CHI allowed	5.1 #22	8.1 #21	13.3 #26	7.4 #32	6.6 #19	14.0 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.