Buccaneers @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-4 · Power #14

final

Final

Houston Texans

3-4 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

✓ TB W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 21–24 HOU

✓ HOU (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -2.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -2.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 2.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 39–37; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 2.9; 37.1 points a game (usually 46.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs DEN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	17–16	L	U41
Very close	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	27–20	W	O39
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	13–16	L	U40.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	16–24	L	O37

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB ––LLW	1-2	33%	1-0	1-1
HOU –––WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB ––UUU	0-3	0%	3-4
HOU –––UU	0-2	0%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TBlast 7	3-4 43%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%
HOUlast 7	3-4 43%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 2–5 HOU HOU leads · 7 games since 2003 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.3 →−0.7▼ 1.0#18

HOU−2.2 →+0.2▲ 2.4#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

HOU

#25

Offense

HOU better ▶

#19

#17

Defense

Even

#15

+1.1 #1

Turnovers

◀ TB better

+0.7 #6

61 plays #23

Pace

HOU faster ▶

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TB off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #27	18.3 #7	HOU
Yards / play	4.88 #24	5.19 #15	HOU
EPA / play	−0.06 #19	−0.03 #16	Even
Success rate	38% #30	44% #20	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #20	18.3 #6	TB
Yards / play	5.14 #17	5.47 #23	HOU
EPA / play	−0.02 #13	−0.04 #15	Even
Success rate	40% #24	45% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	1.9 #29	7.1 #13	9.0 #25	2.4 #28	5.9 #17	8.3 #25
HOU allowed	5.0 #20	3.3 #1	8.3 #4	6.1 #28	3.9 #6	10.0 #15

HOU scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.9 #14	6.9 #18	11.7 #15	2.7 #27	6.7 #13	9.4 #20
TB allowed	3.7 #10	6.7 #16	10.4 #11	4.1 #18	3.7 #4	7.9 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.