Buccaneers @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Thu, Oct 26, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff66°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-3 · Power #14

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

4-3 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -10

✓ TB W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 17–27 BUF

✓ BUF (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -10

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -10

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 10-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 24–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 43, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 10.1; 49.7 points a game (usually 45.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL vs NYG 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	28–20	L	O45.5
Very close	SF vs NO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-9	13–0	W	U43.5
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-11	21–32	L	O43
Close	TB vs CAR 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & situation	-11	41–17	W	O43
Close	SF vs SEA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-9	41–23	W	O42
Close	BAL vs NYG 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-9.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	DAL vs IND 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-11	54–19	W	O44.5
Close	DAL vs WSH 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar spread	-10	56–14	W	O46
Close	KC vs PIT 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	36–10	W	O44.5
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-10	20–12	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB –––LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1
BUF W––LL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB –––UU	0-2	0%	3-3
BUF –––UO	1-1	50%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 26% of games with totals 40–46 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TBlast 6	3-3 50%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%
BUFlast 7	4-3 57%	2-2 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 4–4 BUF Series tied · 8 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.3 →−0.7▼ 1.0#18

BUF−1.0 →+3.6▲ 4.6#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

BUF

#24

Offense

BUF better ▶

#13

Defense

Even

#15

+1.2 #1

Turnovers

◀ TB better

+0.4 #12

61 plays #23

Pace

BUF faster ▶

63 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	TB off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #26	16.9 #5	BUF
Yards / play	4.88 #23	5.61 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #17	−0.09 #8	BUF
Success rate	38% #29	45% #22	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #3	17.3 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.86 #4	5.32 #19	BUF
EPA / play	+0.17 #2	−0.06 #11	BUF
Success rate	52% #2	43% #15	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.2 #28	6.7 #16	8.8 #23	2.8 #25	5.5 #21	8.3 #25
BUF allowed	5.4 #23	2.7 #1	8.1 #4	1.7 #3	6.1 #17	7.9 #7

BUF scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.9 #14	8.1 #9	13.0 #10	3.4 #20	11.9 #1	15.3 #2
TB allowed	3.8 #12	5.5 #6	9.3 #8	3.7 #13	4.3 #8	8.0 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.