Vikings @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Weather at kickoff40°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

3-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

2-4 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ MIN W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 25–25 GB

✓ MIN (50%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN –––WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—
GB –––LW	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: MIN away; GB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN –––UU	0-2	0%	3-4
GB –––UU	0-2	0%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 26% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	3-4 43%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%
GBlast 6	2-4 33%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 24–31 GB (2 tied) GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.3 →+0.3▲ 0.6#15

GB+5.2 →−1.5▼ 6.7#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MIN

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

◀ MIN better

#17

#19

Defense

Even

#21

−0.7 #28

Turnovers

GB better ▶

−0.3 #22

61 plays #22

Pace

◀ MIN faster

58 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #18	22.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #5	5.07 #14	MIN
EPA / play	−0.02 #14	+0.01 #23	MIN
Success rate	44% #11	46% #25	MIN

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #17	21.7 #20	Even
Yards / play	4.98 #21	5.06 #12	MIN
EPA / play	−0.01 #12	−0.02 #18	GB
Success rate	42% #18	46% #26	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	1.9 #29	8.9 #9	10.7 #19	5.9 #5	5.0 #25	10.9 #10
GB allowed	5.0 #21	8.0 #21	13.0 #22	3.0 #12	6.0 #16	9.0 #13

GB scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	2.2 #28	2.2 #32	4.3 #32	9.3 #1	8.0 #4	17.3 #1
MIN allowed	3.9 #13	7.0 #16	10.9 #15	7.0 #30	3.9 #5	10.9 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.