Jaguars @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff55°F3 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

5-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

✓ JAX W

Total

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 24–22 PIT

✓ JAX (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -2.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJAX -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -2.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 2.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 20–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 41, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 2.5; 36.3 points a game (usually 46.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	6–23	L	U43
Very close	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Very close	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	23–10	W	U41
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Very close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	15–25	L	U41.5
Close	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Close	DET @ CAR 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	23–37	L	O43.5
Close	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX –––WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
PIT –W––W	2-0	100%	—	2-0

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX –––OO	2-0	100%	5-2
PIT –U––U	0-2	0%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 25% of games with totals 38–44 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAXlast 7	5-2 71%	2-0 100%	2-0 100%
PITlast 6	4-2 67%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 11–9 PIT JAX leads · 20 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+3.9 →+1.1▼ 2.8#10

PIT−7.9 →−1.8▲ 6.1#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

JAX

Longer bar = better

PIT

#16

Offense

◀ JAX better

#29

#12

Defense

◀ JAX better

#18

+0.9 #5

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #2

67 plays #7

Pace

◀ JAX faster

59 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #9	21.2 #18	JAX
Yards / play	5.05 #19	5.58 #26	JAX
EPA / play	−0.08 #21	−0.06 #11	PIT
Success rate	43% #14	44% #17	Even

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	PIT off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #27	20.9 #16	JAX
Yards / play	4.68 #27	5.37 #19	JAX
EPA / play	−0.16 #28	−0.09 #7	JAX
Success rate	37% #32	40% #7	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.6 #16	7.7 #11	12.3 #13	4.3 #15	8.1 #3	12.4 #6
PIT allowed	6.2 #28	6.5 #13	12.7 #20	3.8 #13	4.7 #9	8.5 #11

PIT scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.3 #26	4.7 #27	7.0 #28	4.3 #14	5.8 #18	10.2 #15
JAX allowed	1.9 #2	5.3 #4	7.1 #2	5.4 #25	8.3 #28	13.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.