Jaguars @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Thu, Oct 19, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

3-3 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

NO -1.5

✓ JAX W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 23–24 NO

✗ NO (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -1.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -1.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 1.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 40.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.9 against an average line of 1.8; 41.7 points a game (usually 45.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR vs ARI 2020 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-1	18–7	W	U41.5
Close	MIN vs NE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	33–26	W	O41.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar total & spread	-1	10–24	L	U41
Close	CLE vs DEN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-2	17–14	W	U40.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Close	DEN vs PHI 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1	13–30	L	U44.5
Close	GB vs TEN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-3	17–27	L	O40.5
Close	IND vs JAX 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-1	34–27	W	O41
Close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Close	DEN vs NYJ 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-1	9–16	L	U36.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX ––––W	1-0	100%	—	—
NO ––––L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX ––––O	1-0	100%	4-2
NO ––––U	0-1	0%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAXlast 6	4-2 67%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%
NOlast 6	3-3 50%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 3–4 NO NO leads · 7 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+3.9 →+1.3▼ 2.6#10

NO+0.8 →+0.8–#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

JAX

Longer bar = better

#17

Offense

◀ JAX better

#22

#14

Defense

NO better ▶

+1.2 #3

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

+0.3 #13

68 plays #3

Pace

Even

68 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	JAX off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #10	16.0 #6	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #20	4.59 #4	NO
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.17 #4	NO
Success rate	44% #15	37% #2	NO

When NO has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	NO off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #24	20.3 #15	JAX
Yards / play	4.61 #26	5.53 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #17	−0.08 #9	JAX
Success rate	41% #20	41% #9	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.2 #17	7.3 #13	11.5 #14	3.8 #16	8.3 #5	12.2 #7
NO allowed	2.7 #7	4.5 #3	7.2 #4	1.0 #1	7.8 #24	8.8 #12

NO scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.0 #15	5.5 #22	10.5 #17	4.3 #12	3.3 #29	7.7 #26
JAX allowed	1.7 #3	5.7 #8	7.3 #5	5.8 #26	7.2 #21	13.0 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.