Browns @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

3-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Indianapolis Colts

3-3 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

CLE -3.5

✓ IND W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 26–23 IND

✓ CLE (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -3.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLE -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -3.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 3.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 39–38; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 40.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.9 against an average line of 3.4; 36.5 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NO @ HOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U41.5
Close	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & total	-4	30–20	W	O40
Close	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Close	NO @ SEA 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & total	-5	13–10	L	U42
Close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2	6–23	L	U43
Close	DAL @ GB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-4.5	28–31	L	O44.5
Close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	TB @ CLE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	17–23	L	U42
Close	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3	14–22	L	U41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE ––––W	1-0	100%	—	—
IND ––––L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE ––––O	1-0	100%	3-2
IND ––––O	1-0	100%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 5	3-2 60%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%
INDlast 6	3-3 50%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 3–8 IND IND leads · 11 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+6.0 →+1.3▼ 4.7#11

IND−3.9 →+0.3▲ 4.2#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CLE

Longer bar = better

IND

#27

Offense

IND better ▶

#18

Defense

◀ CLE better

#20

−1.6 #32

Turnovers

IND better ▶

0.0 #15

71 plays #2

Pace

Even

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	CLE off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #21	25.3 #24	Even
Yards / play	4.50 #28	5.13 #15	IND
EPA / play	−0.20 #30	−0.03 #16	IND
Success rate	39% #29	45% #23	IND

When IND has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	IND off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #11	15.4 #5	CLE
Yards / play	5.14 #16	3.82 #1	CLE
EPA / play	−0.07 #18	−0.28 #1	CLE
Success rate	40% #25	30% #1	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.8 #27	7.6 #12	9.4 #23	4.8 #10	4.8 #25	9.6 #19
IND allowed	6.3 #26	6.7 #15	13.0 #22	5.5 #24	5.8 #17	11.3 #22

IND scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.0 #18	6.2 #19	10.2 #17	5.8 #5	6.8 #13	12.7 #5
CLE allowed	4.2 #14	5.8 #10	10.0 #10	1.2 #1	4.2 #8	5.4 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.