Browns @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff49°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #8

final

Final

Seattle Seahawks

4-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -4

Push

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 21–25 SEA

✓ SEA (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSEA -4

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSEA -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSEA -4

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 4-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 24–20; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 38.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 3.3; 41.4 points a game (usually 46.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs NYJ 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	11–6	W	U37
Very close	SF vs TB 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	35–7	W	O38.5
Very close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Close	PHI vs NO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	40–29	W	O42
Close	NE vs CIN 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	18–22	L	U41.5
Close	CLE vs PIT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	29–17	W	O38
Close	SEA vs LAR 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3	20–30	L	O42
Close	SF vs IND 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	18–30	L	O41
Close	TEN vs NO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	23–21	L	O42.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE –––WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0
SEA –––LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE –––OO	2-0	100%	4-2
SEA –––UU	0-2	0%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
SEAlast 6	4-2 67%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 2–5 SEA SEA leads · 7 games since 2001 · SEA has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+6.0 →+1.9▼ 4.1#9

SEA−7.8 →+0.7▲ 8.5#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CLE

Longer bar = better

SEA

#27

Offense

SEA better ▶

Defense

◀ CLE better

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

SEA better ▶

+0.2 #14

71 plays #1

Pace

◀ CLE faster

61 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	CLE off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #15	19.7 #12	Even
Yards / play	4.48 #29	4.75 #3	SEA
EPA / play	−0.20 #32	−0.07 #10	SEA
Success rate	38% #30	42% #12	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	SEA off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #12	19.2 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #12	4.43 #2	CLE
EPA / play	+0.04 #9	−0.23 #1	CLE
Success rate	48% #4	32% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	2.7 #26	9.7 #7	12.3 #12	4.5 #13	5.5 #23	10.0 #17
SEA allowed	4.5 #17	5.7 #6	10.2 #12	2.8 #8	6.7 #19	9.5 #13

SEA scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	5.7 #8	6.0 #21	11.7 #16	5.5 #5	5.8 #19	11.3 #9
CLE allowed	5.8 #26	6.0 #8	11.8 #17	2.2 #5	5.2 #14	7.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.