Bengals @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 8 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff70°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

3-3 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

5-2 · Power #1

final

Closing spread

SF -4.5

✓ CIN W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 22–27 SF

✗ SF (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -4.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -4.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 4.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 31–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 44, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 5.1; 41.8 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI vs TEN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Close	PIT vs WSH 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	17–23	L	U44
Close	PHI vs NO 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-5	10–20	L	U41.5
Close	CLE vs PIT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-5	10–15	L	U43
Loose	LAR vs SF 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-5.5	20–23	L	U44.5
Loose	CIN vs CLE 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & situation	-4.5	23–10	W	U47
Loose	LAR vs NE 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & total	-4.5	24–3	W	U43.5
Loose	PHI vs GB 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar total	-6.5	40–33	W	O46
Loose	KC vs LAC 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-5.5	31–17	W	O47.5
Loose	SEA vs CAR 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & rest	-4	24–30	L	O44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN ––––W	1-0	100%	—	—
SF –––LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN ––––U	0-1	0%	3-3
SF –––OU	1-1	50%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 9 earlier overs in games with totals 41–47, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CINlast 6	3-3 50%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%
SFlast 7	5-2 71%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 4–4 SF Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−6.0 →−1.8▲ 4.2#24

SF+7.9 →+5.6▼ 2.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CIN

Longer bar = better

#26

Offense

SF better ▶

#20

Defense

SF better ▶

+0.8 #7

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #6

61 plays #21

Pace

Even

61 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	CIN off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #28	15.6 #3	SF
Yards / play	4.18 #32	4.85 #7	SF
EPA / play	−0.12 #26	−0.12 #5	SF
Success rate	43% #17	40% #6	SF

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #2	21.2 #17	SF
Yards / play	5.99 #2	5.57 #25	SF
EPA / play	+0.15 #3	−0.02 #17	SF
Success rate	50% #3	45% #21	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	3.3 #23	5.0 #25	8.3 #26	4.5 #14	3.8 #28	8.3 #26
SF allowed	1.9 #3	8.1 #23	10.0 #9	3.9 #13	1.7 #1	5.6 #2

SF scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.9 #8	10.3 #3	16.1 #4	3.9 #18	8.7 #2	12.6 #5
CIN allowed	3.3 #7	9.5 #29	12.8 #24	4.2 #17	4.2 #8	8.3 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.