Bills @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

5-3 · Power #4

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

4-3 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

✓ CIN W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 24–26 CIN

✓ CIN (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 2.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 24–18; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.1; 55.4 points a game (usually 46.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs PIT 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	26–15	W	U48.5
Close	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-3	14–37	L	O48.5
Close	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Close	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-2	31–41	L	O47.5
Close	CLE vs IND 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-1	32–23	W	O48.5
Close	SEA vs LAR 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	20–9	W	U47.5
Close	IND vs TEN 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	31–34	L	O51
Close	BUF vs LAR 2020 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	35–32	W	O46.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Close	CIN vs SF 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-1	23–26	L	P49

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF ––LLL	2-3	40%	1-1	—
CIN –––WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF ––UOU	1-2	33%	5-3
CIN –––UO	1-1	50%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFlast 8	5-3 63%	2-3 40%	1-2 33%
CINlast 7	4-3 57%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 9–6 CIN BUF leads · 15 games since 2002 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF−1.0 →+3.8▲ 4.8#6

CIN−6.0 →−0.5▲ 5.5#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BUF

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ BUF better

#22

#14

Defense

◀ BUF better

#22

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+1.0 #1

64 plays #16

Pace

◀ BUF faster

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #3	20.6 #13	BUF
Yards / play	5.91 #3	5.91 #31	BUF
EPA / play	+0.16 #1	−0.03 #17	BUF
Success rate	52% #1	46% #28	BUF

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	CIN off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #23	17.0 #3	BUF
Yards / play	4.51 #30	5.52 #25	BUF
EPA / play	−0.07 #22	−0.08 #8	BUF
Success rate	45% #11	44% #21	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.6 #16	8.9 #7	13.5 #10	3.9 #16	10.4 #1	14.3 #3
CIN allowed	3.9 #11	8.6 #27	12.4 #22	3.6 #11	4.6 #10	8.1 #7

CIN scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.9 #14	4.3 #28	9.1 #25	4.3 #14	5.3 #22	9.6 #19
BUF allowed	4.8 #21	3.6 #2	8.4 #4	1.5 #1	6.4 #20	7.9 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.