Broncos @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Mon, Nov 13, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff46°F9 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

3-5 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo Bills

5-4 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

✓ DEN W

Total

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 22–30 BUF

✗ BUF (76%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -7.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -7.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 7.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 24–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 47, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 7.5; 51.3 points a game (usually 47.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs CIN 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	36–10	W	U46.5
Very close	MIA vs NE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–17	W	O46.5
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	20–10	W	U47
Very close	IND vs CIN 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	31–27	L	O45.5
Very close	BAL vs DAL 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	34–17	W	O46
Close	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Close	BUF vs WSH 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-7	43–21	W	O45.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-6	22–28	L	O48
Close	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Close	GB vs CHI 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–25	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN ––LLW	1-4	20%	0-1	1-1
BUF –LLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN ––UUU	0-4	0%	3-5
BUF –UOUU	1-3	25%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 48% of games with totals 44–50 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 8	3-5 38%	1-4 20%	0-4 0%
BUFlast 9	5-4 56%	2-4 33%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 6–6 BUF Series tied · 12 games since 2002 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN0.0 →−3.0▼ 3.0#26

BUF−1.0 →+3.0▲ 4.0#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

DEN

Longer bar = better

BUF

#16

Offense

BUF better ▶

#32

Defense

BUF better ▶

#16

0.0 #15

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #16

57 plays #32

Pace

BUF faster ▶

63 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #17	17.8 #4	BUF
Yards / play	5.34 #13	5.57 #26	DEN
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	−0.05 #11	BUF
Success rate	42% #15	44% #23	DEN

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #7	28.3 #32	BUF
Yards / play	5.90 #4	6.34 #32	BUF
EPA / play	+0.15 #3	+0.13 #32	BUF
Success rate	53% #1	48% #32	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	6.4 #6	4.9 #27	11.3 #16	2.1 #29	8.1 #4	10.3 #17
BUF allowed	5.8 #26	4.0 #3	9.8 #10	1.3 #1	6.0 #16	7.3 #4

BUF scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.9 #14	7.9 #10	12.8 #10	3.8 #20	10.1 #1	13.9 #3
DEN allowed	4.4 #17	9.4 #31	13.8 #29	6.4 #29	8.1 #30	14.5 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.