Jets @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff41°F9 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

4-5 · Power #26

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

5-5 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -8.5

✓ BUF W

Total

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 19–28 BUF

✓ BUF (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -8.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -8.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as an 8.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 32–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 39, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 8.7; 45.4 points a game (usually 47.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	14–33	L	O40
Very close	BAL vs DEN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9	10–9	L	U40.5
Close	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	24–17	L	O40
Close	GB vs NE 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	27–24	L	O40
Close	SF vs SEA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-9	41–23	W	O42
Close	PHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	34–10	W	O40.5
Close	LAC vs NYG 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	37–21	W	O43.5
Close	CIN vs CAR 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	42–21	W	O42.5
Close	BAL vs NYG 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ –WPLL	1-2-1	33%	0-1-1	1-1
BUF LLLLL	2-5	29%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ –UUUU	0-4	0%	4-5
BUF UOUUU	1-4	20%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 38% of games with totals 36–42 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJlast 9	4-5 44%	1-2-1 33%	0-4 0%
BUF	5-5 50%	2-5 29%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYJ 25–29 BUF BUF leads · 54 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 11 2023	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New York Jets 22	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ+1.0 →−1.8▼ 2.8#22

BUF−1.0 →+2.3▲ 3.3#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NYJ

Longer bar = better

BUF

#31

Offense

BUF better ▶

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#16

+0.1 #13

Turnovers

◀ NYJ better

−0.3 #22

60 plays #27

Pace

BUF faster ▶

62 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	NYJ off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #30	18.4 #6	BUF
Yards / play	4.72 #29	5.41 #24	BUF
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	−0.05 #13	BUF
Success rate	37% #32	44% #19	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #7	19.1 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #3	4.62 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.13 #2	−0.09 #7	BUF
Success rate	52% #1	40% #4	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.0 #30	5.1 #24	7.1 #29	3.0 #28	4.9 #26	7.9 #28
BUF allowed	5.5 #23	4.8 #5	10.3 #11	1.2 #1	6.3 #19	7.5 #4

BUF scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.4 #18	7.9 #10	12.3 #10	4.1 #17	9.8 #1	13.9 #3
NYJ allowed	7.1 #32	5.6 #9	12.7 #23	2.1 #4	4.3 #7	6.4 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.