Raiders @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff80°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

5-5 · Power #23

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

6-3 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -13.5

✓ LV W

Total

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 19–32 MIA

✓ MIA (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -13.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -13.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 13.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 20–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 13.3; 41.6 points a game (usually 43.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs TEN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	20–17	L	U45
Very close	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13	27–24	L	O46
Very close	SF vs HOU 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	23–7	W	U44.5
Very close	BAL vs CAR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	13–3	L	U41.5
Very close	KC vs PIT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & situation	-12	42–21	W	O46
Close	GB vs JAX 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	24–20	L	U47
Close	MIA vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	30–15	W	U47.5
Close	BUF vs CAR 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-14.5	31–14	W	O43
Close	TB vs CHI 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-12	38–3	W	U47
Close	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	29–15	P	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WLLWW	5-5	50%	1-4	1-3
MIA –WLWL	2-2	50%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOUUU	1-8	11%	5-5
MIA –OUOU	2-2	50%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 37% of games with totals 41–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-8 11%
MIAlast 9	6-3 67%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 5–13 MIA MIA leads · 18 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV0.0 →−3.2▼ 3.2#28

MIA+2.1 →+3.0▲ 0.9#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

MIA

#24

Offense

MIA better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ LV better

#21

−0.7 #31

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #28

59 plays #31

Pace

MIA faster ▶

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #27	25.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.71 #29	5.06 #12	MIA
EPA / play	−0.13 #26	−0.02 #18	MIA
Success rate	44% #12	45% #27	LV

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #1	20.5 #13	MIA
Yards / play	7.08 #1	5.20 #16	MIA
EPA / play	+0.15 #1	−0.03 #15	MIA
Success rate	50% #3	45% #25	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.1 #18	5.6 #23	9.7 #22	1.9 #30	5.6 #23	7.5 #28
MIA allowed	6.6 #30	8.2 #24	14.8 #31	3.3 #8	6.9 #23	10.2 #16

MIA scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.3 #10	11.4 #2	16.8 #3	8.4 #1	6.4 #11	14.9 #1
LV allowed	4.6 #20	7.0 #15	11.6 #13	4.8 #21	4.1 #3	8.9 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.