Chargers @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff43°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

4-5 · Power #22

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

3-6 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -3

✓ GB W

Total

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 27–24 GB

✗ LAC (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -3

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAC -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -3

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3-point road favorite at GB, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 44, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 3.2; 42.6 points a game (usually 46.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Very close	DET @ CAR 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	23–37	L	O43.5
Very close	SF @ SEA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	23–30	L	O45
Very close	MIN @ MIA 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–16	W	U45
Very close	DAL @ TB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	31–14	W	U45.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	7–13	L	U45
Very close	LAC @ DEN 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	30–31	L	O44.5
Very close	ARI @ NYG 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	26–7	W	U47
Very close	MIN @ CHI 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	19–13	W	U44.5
Very close	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	13–32	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLWWL	3-3	50%	1-1	3-0
GB LWLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; GB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UOUUO	2-4	33%	4-5
GB UUUUO	1-4	20%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 37% of games with totals 41–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 9	4-5 44%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
GBlast 9	3-6 33%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 1–6 GB GB leads · 7 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−2.1 →+0.6▲ 2.7#13

GB+5.2 →−1.4▼ 6.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

LAC

Longer bar = better

#11

Offense

◀ LAC better

#19

#27

Defense

GB better ▶

#15

+0.9 #5

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.4 #27

64 plays #13

Pace

◀ LAC faster

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #7	20.2 #12	LAC
Yards / play	5.44 #12	4.94 #6	GB
EPA / play	+0.05 #8	−0.01 #20	LAC
Success rate	42% #16	44% #23	LAC

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #21	23.9 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #17	5.86 #29	GB
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	+0.03 #28	GB
Success rate	41% #21	45% #28	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	7.2 #3	9.6 #4	16.8 #3	3.3 #25	6.4 #11	9.8 #21
GB allowed	4.9 #21	7.1 #16	12.0 #19	3.9 #14	4.3 #6	8.2 #7

GB scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	2.2 #30	3.2 #32	5.4 #31	8.0 #2	6.4 #11	14.4 #2
LAC allowed	3.8 #10	9.0 #29	12.8 #24	3.8 #12	7.0 #24	10.8 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.