Ravens @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff65°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

8-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

4-6 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

BAL -3

✓ BAL W

Total

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 28–24 LAC

✓ BAL (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3-point road favorite at LAC, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 20–10; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 49, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 3.2; 57.3 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ MIN 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	30–23	W	O48.5
Very close	LAR @ ARI 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	38–28	W	O48.5
Very close	NO @ ATL 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	21–16	W	U45.5
Very close	KC @ CIN 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & total	-4	31–34	L	O50.5
Very close	IND @ DET 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	41–21	W	O49
Very close	LAR @ SF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	10–31	L	U50
Very close	KC @ LAC 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–28	W	O50
Very close	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Very close	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Close	TB @ LV 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4	45–20	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL WLWLW	4-2	67%	0-1	4-2
LAC LWWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	0-3

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; LAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOUOO	4-2	67%	8-3
LAC OUUOU	2-5	29%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 42% of games with totals 46–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	7-3 70%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
LAC	4-6 40%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 10–4 LAC BAL leads · 14 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+2.2 →+5.1▲ 2.9#3

LAC−2.1 →+0.5▲ 2.6#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BAL

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ BAL better

#11

Defense

◀ BAL better

#28

+0.1 #14

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+0.7 #5

63 plays #18

Pace

Even

64 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #5	23.8 #25	BAL
Yards / play	5.83 #5	5.83 #29	BAL
EPA / play	+0.05 #8	+0.04 #28	BAL
Success rate	47% #4	45% #28	BAL

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	LAC off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #8	16.1 #2	BAL
Yards / play	5.53 #10	4.22 #1	BAL
EPA / play	+0.05 #7	−0.15 #3	Even
Success rate	42% #18	40% #3	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	7.8 #2	7.9 #10	15.7 #5	6.3 #5	5.6 #18	11.9 #8
LAC allowed	3.4 #9	9.1 #30	12.5 #22	4.0 #15	7.0 #24	11.0 #22

LAC scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.8 #3	9.3 #5	16.1 #4	3.3 #23	6.5 #13	9.8 #20
BAL allowed	1.7 #1	4.1 #3	5.8 #1	2.8 #6	7.2 #27	10.0 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.