Steelers @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Weather at kickoff46°F9 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

6-4 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

5-5 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

PIT -2

✓ PIT W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 22–20 CIN

✓ PIT (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -2

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePIT -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -2

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 2-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 16–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 36, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.9 against an average line of 1.5; 37.3 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ TEN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	23–28	L	O35
Very close	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Very close	MIA @ NO 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	20–3	W	U37.5
Very close	DEN @ CAR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-1	10–23	L	U36
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Very close	WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-1	12–7	W	U37.5
Close	LV @ CHI 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	12–30	L	O37.5
Close	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Close	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Close	NE @ MIA 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	12–22	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	2-0
CIN WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UUPOU	1-4-1	20%	6-4
CIN UOUOO	3-2	60%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 45% of games with totals 33–39 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	4-2 67%	1-4-1 20%
CIN	5-5 50%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 41–16 CIN PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−7.9 →−2.2▲ 5.7#22

CIN−6.0 →−0.4▲ 5.6#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PIT

Longer bar = better

CIN

#27

Offense

CIN better ▶

#18

#14

Defense

◀ PIT better

#27

+1.1 #1

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #2

59 plays #28

Pace

CIN faster ▶

62 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #28	22.6 #20	CIN
Yards / play	4.73 #28	6.15 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.11 #25	+0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	40% #26	47% #31	PIT

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #21	19.5 #7	PIT
Yards / play	4.85 #25	5.38 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #15	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	44% #11	42% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.8 #26	4.4 #27	7.2 #29	4.6 #13	4.8 #27	9.4 #23
CIN allowed	4.1 #13	8.4 #26	12.5 #20	4.4 #18	5.7 #14	10.1 #15

CIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.8 #8	4.4 #27	10.2 #20	4.3 #14	5.7 #19	10.0 #18
PIT allowed	6.0 #28	6.1 #12	12.1 #19	4.0 #14	3.4 #2	7.4 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.