Cardinals @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff59°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

2-10 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

7-4 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

PIT -6

✓ ARI W

Total

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 19–25 PIT

✗ PIT (70%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -6

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePIT -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -6

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 6-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 24–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 41, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 6.4; 41.5 points a game (usually 47.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA vs CHI 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	24–25	L	O41
Very close	NYG vs IND 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	38–10	W	O38.5
Very close	ATL vs ARI 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	20–19	L	U40.5
Very close	LAC vs LAR 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	31–10	W	P41
Very close	JAX vs TEN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–14	W	O40
Very close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Very close	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-7	29–27	L	O40
Very close	LAC vs CAR 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	16–21	L	U43.5
Very close	PIT vs DET 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	16–16	L	U40.5
Very close	JAX vs TEN 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	20–16	L	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WLWWL	4-4	50%	2-3	4-4
PIT LWWLW	5-2	71%	2-1	3-0

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI OUOUO	3-5	38%	2-10
PIT UPOUU	1-5-1	17%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 37% of games with totals 38–44 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	2-8 20%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
PIT	7-3 70%	5-2 71%	1-5-1 17%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 2–5 PIT PIT leads · 7 games since 2003 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−0.4 →−4.4▼ 4.0#30

PIT−7.9 →−1.4▲ 6.5#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ARI

Longer bar = better

PIT

#26

Offense

Even

#26

#30

Defense

PIT better ▶

#13

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.0 #1

61 plays #23

Pace

Even

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	ARI off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #25	18.6 #5	PIT
Yards / play	4.88 #26	5.38 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #27	−0.06 #10	PIT
Success rate	40% #26	42% #12	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #28	26.8 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.88 #25	5.51 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #25	+0.06 #31	PIT
Success rate	40% #25	47% #32	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.4 #15	6.8 #16	11.2 #16	3.3 #23	2.8 #31	6.0 #32
PIT allowed	5.5 #27	6.2 #11	11.6 #15	3.6 #12	3.4 #2	7.0 #2

PIT scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.5 #27	4.3 #29	6.8 #30	4.8 #11	4.9 #25	9.7 #20
ARI allowed	4.8 #21	8.6 #27	13.4 #28	4.8 #20	8.6 #31	13.3 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.