Dolphins @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff59°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

8-3 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

4-8 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

MIA -8.5

✓ MIA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 32–24 WSH

✓ MIA (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -8.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -8.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as an 8.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 45–15; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 8.5; 49.6 points a game (usually 47.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-8	38–11	W	P49
Very close	TB @ WSH 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	19–29	L	U50.5
Very close	PHI @ CHI 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-9	25–20	L	U48
Very close	TB @ ATL 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & total	-10	30–17	W	U50.5
Close	TEN @ JAX 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	31–10	W	U53
Close	KC @ LAC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	30–27	L	O53
Close	KC @ LV 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	31–13	W	U52
Close	TEN @ CIN 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar total	-7	20–31	L	O49
Close	MIN @ DET 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	27–29	L	O47
Close	BAL @ PHI 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-10	30–28	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-2
WSH PWWLL	5-6-1	45%	0-4-1	5-2-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUUO	3-3	50%	8-3
WSH OUOOO	6-4	60%	4-8

Went over in Q3. Of 11 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 18% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	7-3 70%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
WSH	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 5–3 WSH MIA leads · 8 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+2.1 →+4.1▲ 2.0#5

WSH+0.4 →−4.1▼ 4.5#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MIA

Longer bar = better

WSH

Offense

◀ MIA better

#19

#14

Defense

◀ MIA better

#27

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.8 #32

63 plays #19

Pace

WSH faster ▶

67 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #2	29.2 #32	MIA
Yards / play	6.86 #1	5.94 #30	MIA
EPA / play	+0.12 #4	+0.07 #32	MIA
Success rate	48% #3	42% #13	MIA

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	WSH off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #20	22.8 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.17 #19	4.89 #7	MIA
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.07 #7	MIA
Success rate	42% #15	44% #21	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.3 #10	11.3 #3	16.5 #3	7.7 #1	6.5 #12	14.3 #2
WSH allowed	5.9 #29	8.9 #28	14.8 #32	2.8 #7	11.3 #32	14.1 #32

WSH scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.3 #23	6.4 #18	9.7 #23	4.0 #17	6.8 #9	10.8 #14
MIA allowed	6.3 #30	7.5 #17	13.8 #31	2.7 #5	6.3 #17	9.0 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.