Titans @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Mon, Dec 11, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff61°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

4-8 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

9-3 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

MIA -13.5

✓ TEN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 18–32 MIA

✗ MIA (89%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -13.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -13.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 13.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TEN won 28–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 13.4; 44 points a game (usually 43.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	27–24	L	O46
Very close	MIA vs LV 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	20–13	L	U44
Very close	KC vs TEN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-14	20–17	L	U45
Very close	BUF vs CAR 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	31–14	W	O43
Very close	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Very close	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14	29–15	P	U46
Very close	KC vs PIT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-12	42–21	W	O46
Very close	SF vs TB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	27–14	L	U42
Very close	GB vs JAX 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	24–20	L	U47
Very close	TB vs CHI 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-12	38–3	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LLLWL	2-5	29%	0-3	1-5
MIA WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	4-2

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN PUOUO	3-3-1	50%	4-8
MIA OUUOO	4-3	57%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 10% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	3-7 30%	2-5 29%	3-3-1 50%
MIA	7-3 70%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 8–8 MIA Series tied · 16 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−0.8 →−2.7▼ 1.9#25

MIA+2.1 →+4.7▲ 2.6#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TEN

Longer bar = better

MIA

#23

Offense

MIA better ▶

#19

Defense

MIA better ▶

#12

−0.3 #22

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #23

58 plays #31

Pace

MIA faster ▶

62 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	TEN off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #25	22.2 #20	MIA
Yards / play	5.01 #22	4.86 #5	MIA
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	−0.08 #8	MIA
Success rate	40% #26	42% #15	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #2	21.3 #16	MIA
Yards / play	6.86 #1	5.26 #17	MIA
EPA / play	+0.14 #2	+0.02 #27	MIA
Success rate	48% #3	42% #14	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.8 #22	6.2 #20	9.9 #22	4.1 #19	3.3 #30	7.3 #28
MIA allowed	5.8 #29	7.5 #19	13.3 #28	3.2 #7	5.8 #13	8.9 #10

MIA scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.3 #4	11.5 #2	17.8 #2	7.7 #1	6.6 #12	14.3 #1
TEN allowed	4.1 #14	5.3 #7	9.4 #7	6.1 #28	5.3 #12	11.3 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.