Texans @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff61°F8 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

7-5 · Power #13

final

Final

New York Jets

4-8 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -3

✓ NYJ W

Total

33.5

▲ Over · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 24–21 NYJ

✗ HOU (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -3

Total33.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close33.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -3

Total33.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 30–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 36 points went over 33.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 2.8; 40.1 points a game (usually 46). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ NYJ 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	13–8	W	U33
Close	ATL @ TEN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	23–28	L	O35
Close	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Close	SF @ CHI 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–22	W	O40
Loose	DEN @ CAR 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	10–23	L	U36
Loose	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Loose	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2	16–10	W	U36
Loose	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	30–20	W	O40
Loose	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Loose	CIN @ PIT 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5	37–30	W	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWLLW	3-4	43%	1-1	1-3
NYJ LLLLL	1-5-1	17%	1-3	1-4

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOUUU	2-5	29%	7-5
NYJ UUUOU	1-6	14%	4-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%
NYJ	3-7 30%	1-5-1 17%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 3–8 NYJ NYJ leads · 11 games since 2003 · NYJ has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.2 →+0.6▲ 2.8#12

NYJ+1.0 →−3.4▼ 4.4#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

HOU

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#12

Offense

◀ HOU better

#31

#17

Defense

NYJ better ▶

+0.6 #5

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.3 #25

65 plays #13

Pace

◀ HOU faster

60 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	HOU off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #10	20.9 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #5	4.67 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #10	−0.08 #7	Even
Success rate	41% #21	39% #2	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	NYJ off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	14.3 #30	20.8 #12	HOU
Yards / play	4.36 #30	5.40 #23	HOU
EPA / play	−0.26 #32	−0.03 #16	HOU
Success rate	35% #32	43% #18	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.8 #11	7.1 #12	11.9 #11	4.3 #15	7.3 #8	11.5 #10
NYJ allowed	6.1 #30	7.0 #16	13.1 #27	3.2 #7	4.7 #7	7.8 #3

NYJ scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	1.7 #31	5.1 #26	6.8 #31	2.5 #29	4.3 #28	6.8 #29
HOU allowed	5.4 #26	3.6 #1	9.0 #6	6.7 #31	5.1 #10	11.8 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.