Buccaneers @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-7 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

6-6 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

ATL -1.5

✓ TB W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 22–23 ATL

✗ ATL (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -1.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseATL -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -1.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 1.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 29–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 1.9; 41.7 points a game (usually 44.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs PIT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	16–19	L	U42.5
Very close	WSH vs CLE 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & season form	-1	10–24	L	U41
Very close	LV vs DEN 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	17–13	W	U41.5
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Very close	NYG vs CAR 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	19–16	W	U43.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	26–14	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WWWLL	4-4	50%	3-1	3-2
ATL LLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUOO	3-5	38%	5-7
ATL OOOUU	3-4	43%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 27 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	3-7 30%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
ATL	4-6 40%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TB 25–25 ATL Series tied · 50 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2023	Atlanta Falcons 16 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.3 →−1.4▼ 1.7#21

ATL+2.1 →−1.1▼ 3.2#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

ATL

#23

Offense

Even

#24

#22

Defense

ATL better ▶

+0.4 #6

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.3 #21

61 plays #23

Pace

ATL faster ▶

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	TB off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #23	20.0 #7	ATL
Yards / play	5.00 #22	5.03 #10	ATL
EPA / play	−0.04 #17	−0.08 #5	ATL
Success rate	39% #28	39% #4	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #24	20.4 #11	TB
Yards / play	5.00 #24	5.54 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #24	0.00 #24	Even
Success rate	41% #25	45% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.8 #27	6.5 #16	9.3 #25	3.3 #24	6.8 #9	10.2 #18
ATL allowed	3.4 #7	7.7 #22	11.1 #14	5.1 #20	3.8 #3	8.9 #9

ATL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.1 #24	5.1 #26	8.2 #26	3.2 #26	7.5 #6	10.7 #16
TB allowed	4.4 #14	5.5 #8	9.9 #9	5.4 #24	5.1 #10	10.5 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.