Buccaneers @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff39°F10 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-7 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Green Bay Packers

6-7 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

GB -4

✓ TB W

Total

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 20–24 GB

✗ GB (64%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -4

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGB -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Line context

Home favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 69%, covered 51% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -4

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 4-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 34–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 41, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 3.5; 43.1 points a game (usually 46.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	19–13	W	U40
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	BUF vs NE 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	24–21	L	O41
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	37–34	L	O41.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	17–16	L	U41
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–10	W	O44
Very close	LAR vs CLE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–19	W	O39.5
Very close	WSH vs NYG 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4	12–20	L	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WWLLW	5-4	56%	4-1	4-2
GB LWWWL	5-4	56%	3-1	1-1

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB UUOOO	4-5	44%	6-7
GB OUOOO	4-5	44%	6-7

Went over in Q3. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 38–44, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
GB	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 10–9 GB TB leads · 19 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.3 →−1.4▼ 1.7#22

GB+5.2 →−0.7▼ 5.9#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

GB better ▶

#14

#22

Defense

Even

#20

+0.5 #6

Turnovers

◀ TB better

0.0 #16

62 plays #22

Pace

Even

61 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #22	20.5 #11	GB
Yards / play	4.95 #24	5.29 #19	GB
EPA / play	−0.04 #17	0.00 #22	TB
Success rate	39% #28	45% #26	Even

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #18	20.8 #13	TB
Yards / play	5.36 #13	5.60 #26	GB
EPA / play	+0.02 #10	0.00 #21	GB
Success rate	43% #14	45% #27	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.8 #27	6.7 #15	9.5 #24	3.6 #24	7.1 #8	10.7 #17
GB allowed	4.3 #14	6.2 #12	10.5 #13	5.1 #23	4.9 #9	10.0 #13

GB scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.2 #19	4.0 #32	8.2 #27	7.2 #2	6.2 #17	13.4 #5
TB allowed	4.3 #14	5.6 #11	9.9 #10	5.0 #22	5.8 #12	10.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.