Broncos @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sat, Dec 16, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

7-6 · Power #25

final

Final

Detroit Lions

9-4 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -5.5

✓ DET W

Total

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 24–29 DET

✓ DET (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -5.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDET -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -5.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 5.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 42–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 49, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 5.5; 48.7 points a game (usually 47). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs ATL 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	35–17	W	O48
Very close	ARI vs PHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	33–26	W	O49.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	30–38	L	O48.5
Very close	MIN vs NYG 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	27–24	L	O48.5
Very close	LAC vs SEA 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	23–37	L	O51
Very close	ARI vs SF 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	12–20	L	U49
Very close	GB vs DET 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-5	16–20	L	U48
Very close	CIN vs CLE 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	23–10	W	U47
Very close	CIN vs LV 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-6	26–19	W	U49
Very close	NO vs CAR 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & total	-6.5	27–24	L	O50

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WLWLW	4-6	40%	2-2	3-2
DET WLLWL	4-4	50%	1-2	4-3

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUOUU	1-8	11%	7-6
DET OOOOU	5-3	63%	9-4

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 46–52, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	4-4 50%	1-7 13%
DET	7-3 70%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 5–3 DET DEN leads · 8 games since 1999 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN0.0 →−1.5▼ 1.5#23

DET+1.7 →+2.3▲ 0.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

DEN

Longer bar = better

DET

#17

Offense

DET better ▶

#27

Defense

DET better ▶

#20

+0.5 #7

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

−0.5 #26

59 plays #31

Pace

DET faster ▶

67 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #14	24.2 #24	DEN
Yards / play	5.12 #19	5.31 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #19	−0.03 #17	Even
Success rate	42% #17	43% #20	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #7	23.8 #23	DET
Yards / play	5.81 #4	5.88 #30	DET
EPA / play	+0.04 #8	0.00 #24	DET
Success rate	46% #6	45% #29	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.5 #9	5.4 #23	10.8 #18	2.6 #30	8.6 #2	11.2 #11
DET allowed	4.9 #21	6.0 #11	10.9 #14	6.5 #30	6.3 #18	12.8 #27

DET scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.8 #3	8.3 #7	15.1 #6	3.5 #24	7.5 #6	11.1 #12
DEN allowed	3.5 #7	7.8 #25	11.3 #16	5.7 #27	6.8 #23	12.5 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.