Vikings @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sat, Dec 16, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff53°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

7-6 · Power #15

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

7-6 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -3

Push

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 22–25 CIN

✓ CIN (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -3

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 75%, covered 59% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -3

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CIN won 27–24; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3; 47.4 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Very close	LAR vs CLE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	36–19	W	O39.5
Very close	TEN vs NO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	23–21	L	O42.5
Very close	GB vs TEN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–27	L	O40.5
Very close	MIN vs NE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	33–26	W	O41.5
Very close	PHI vs NO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	40–29	W	O42
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Very close	SF vs WSH 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	15–23	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWLP	6-1-1	86%	4-0-1	4-0
CIN LLLWW	5-3	63%	3-2	3-1

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OOUUU	2-6	25%	7-6
CIN OOUOO	5-3	63%	7-6

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	7-3 70%	6-1-1 86%	2-6 25%
CIN	6-4 60%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 3–4 CIN CIN leads · 7 games since 2005 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.3 →+0.5▲ 0.8#12

CIN−6.0 →−0.3▲ 5.7#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

MIN

Longer bar = better

CIN

#16

Offense

CIN better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ MIN better

#27

−0.4 #24

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.8 #2

64 plays #16

Pace

◀ MIN faster

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #21	22.1 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #13	5.98 #31	MIN
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	+0.03 #29	MIN
Success rate	43% #13	47% #31	MIN

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	CIN off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #17	18.6 #5	MIN
Yards / play	5.20 #15	4.93 #8	MIN
EPA / play	0.00 #11	−0.09 #7	Even
Success rate	44% #9	41% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.0 #30	8.2 #8	10.2 #22	5.8 #5	4.5 #28	10.3 #19
CIN allowed	3.7 #9	8.3 #28	12.0 #18	5.0 #21	5.1 #11	10.1 #14

CIN scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.0 #12	5.5 #23	10.5 #19	4.9 #9	5.8 #20	10.8 #15
MIN allowed	2.8 #3	5.3 #7	8.1 #3	5.9 #29	4.6 #6	10.5 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.