Bengals @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sat, Dec 23, 2023, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Weather at kickoff45°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

8-6 · Power #17

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

7-7 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -3

✓ PIT W

Total

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 24–21 PIT

✗ CIN (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -3

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -3

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 34–11 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 39, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 2.8; 29.1 points a game (usually 45.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ CAR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	15–25	L	U41.5
Very close	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–10	W	U41
Very close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	30–20	W	O40
Very close	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–22	L	U41
Very close	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Very close	MIN @ LV 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	3–0	P	U40.5
Very close	JAX @ PIT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	20–10	W	U41
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Very close	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Very close	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2	16–10	W	U36

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LLWWP	5-3-1	63%	2-1	3-1-1
PIT LWLLL	5-5	50%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOOO	6-3	67%	8-6
PIT UUUOO	3-6-1	33%	7-7

Went over in Q3. Of 28 earlier overs in games with totals 36–42, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	7-3 70%	5-3-1 63%	6-3 67%
PIT	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	3-5-1 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 16–41 PIT PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 16 @ Cincinnati Bengals 10	PIT -2	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−6.0 →−0.4▲ 5.6#16

PIT−7.9 →−2.6▲ 5.3#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

CIN

Longer bar = better

PIT

#12

Offense

◀ CIN better

#27

#28

Defense

PIT better ▶

#13

+0.8 #2

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #5

61 plays #24

Pace

Even

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #14	20.0 #9	PIT
Yards / play	5.22 #14	5.35 #21	CIN
EPA / play	+0.01 #11	−0.05 #14	Even
Success rate	45% #9	41% #9	Even

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	15.9 #28	22.2 #20	CIN
Yards / play	4.80 #27	6.01 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.13 #26	+0.04 #30	Even
Success rate	40% #25	47% #31	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.9 #12	5.1 #24	10.0 #22	4.6 #13	6.9 #10	11.5 #12
PIT allowed	5.0 #23	7.4 #20	12.4 #23	4.1 #13	3.6 #1	7.6 #2

PIT scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.9 #24	4.4 #28	7.2 #28	3.8 #20	4.9 #23	8.7 #24
CIN allowed	3.9 #12	7.7 #25	11.6 #17	5.4 #24	5.2 #10	10.6 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.