Steelers @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff45°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

8-7 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Seattle Seahawks

8-7 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

SEA -4

✓ PIT W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 21–25 SEA

✗ SEA (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSEA -4

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSEA -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 72%, covered 54% (71 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSEA -4

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 4-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 30–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 40.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 3.8 against an average line of 3.5; 42.8 points a game (usually 46.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs TB 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	20–34	L	O41
Very close	LV vs IND 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	20–25	L	O41.5
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	37–34	L	O41.5
Very close	BUF vs NE 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	24–21	L	O41
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	19–13	W	U40
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	GB vs TEN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	17–27	L	O40.5
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	13–16	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WLLLW	6-5	55%	3-2	3-3
SEA LWWWP	5-4-2	56%	2-2-1	1-1-2

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UUOOO	4-6-1	40%	8-7
SEA OOUUU	4-7	36%	8-7

Went over in Q3. Of 41 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%
SEA	5-5 50%	5-3-2 63%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 5–5 SEA Series tied · 10 games since 1999 · SEA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−7.9 →−1.9▲ 6.0#23

SEA−7.8 →−0.3▲ 7.5#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PIT

Longer bar = better

SEA

#25

Offense

SEA better ▶

#14

#13

Defense

◀ PIT better

#23

+0.7 #2

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.2 #13

60 plays #28

Pace

Even

60 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #28	23.5 #23	SEA
Yards / play	4.93 #25	5.34 #20	SEA
EPA / play	−0.10 #25	+0.02 #25	Even
Success rate	41% #23	45% #24	Even

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #19	19.4 #7	PIT
Yards / play	5.37 #13	5.40 #23	SEA
EPA / play	0.00 #11	−0.06 #13	Even
Success rate	43% #11	41% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.1 #24	5.2 #24	8.3 #28	4.0 #23	4.8 #25	8.8 #25
SEA allowed	4.7 #21	7.7 #24	12.4 #22	4.0 #11	7.1 #26	11.1 #17

SEA scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	5.4 #7	4.7 #28	10.1 #19	5.1 #8	5.7 #21	10.8 #17
PIT allowed	4.7 #20	6.9 #17	11.5 #20	4.5 #15	3.3 #2	7.9 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.