Cardinals @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff45°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

3-12 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

11-4 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

PHI -12.5

✓ ARI W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 19–31 PHI

✗ PHI (87%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -12.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePHI -12.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -12.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 12.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 35–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 48, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.9 against an average line of 12.2; 44.5 points a game (usually 44.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR vs JAX 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-13	37–7	W	U47.5
Very close	BAL vs JAX 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	40–14	W	O48.5
Very close	KC vs PIT 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-12	42–21	W	O46
Very close	GB vs JAX 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	24–20	L	U47
Very close	TB vs MIA 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-11	45–17	W	O48
Close	MIA vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-14	30–15	W	U47.5
Close	SF vs HOU 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	23–7	W	U44.5
Close	IND vs HOU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	31–3	W	U45
Close	IND vs JAX 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-10.5	23–17	L	U48
Close	SEA vs NYG 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	12–17	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WLWLL	5-6	45%	3-4	5-6
PHI WLLLL	4-6-1	40%	3-3	3-4-1

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UOUOO	5-6	45%	3-12
PHI OOUUO	6-5	55%	11-4

Went over in Q4. Of 24 earlier overs in games with totals 45–51, 17% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PHI	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 11–8 PHI ARI leads · 19 games since 1999 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−0.4 →−4.1▼ 3.7#29

PHI0.0 →+2.0▲ 2.0#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ARI

Longer bar = better

PHI

#26

Offense

PHI better ▶

#31

Defense

PHI better ▶

#24

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

−0.5 #28

62 plays #22

Pace

PHI faster ▶

67 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Even matchup

	ARI off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #26	24.4 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.96 #24	5.37 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #26	+0.03 #28	Even
Success rate	39% #29	43% #20	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #7	26.9 #31	PHI
Yards / play	5.45 #10	5.67 #29	PHI
EPA / play	+0.07 #5	+0.08 #32	PHI
Success rate	46% #7	47% #32	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.2 #18	6.7 #15	10.9 #15	3.5 #23	3.9 #31	7.4 #29
PHI allowed	3.4 #5	9.0 #29	12.4 #23	4.2 #13	7.6 #28	11.8 #24

PHI scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.0 #6	6.0 #21	12.0 #12	6.7 #3	6.9 #10	13.5 #3
ARI allowed	5.5 #27	8.3 #26	13.7 #30	4.9 #22	8.2 #31	13.1 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.