Saints @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Weather at kickoff64°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

7-8 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8-7 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

TB -2.5

✓ NO W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 22–24 TB

✗ TB (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -2.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTB -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -2.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 2.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 23–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 2.8; 46.6 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Very close	DEN vs CIN 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	10–15	L	U44
Very close	CIN vs MIN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	27–24	P	O41.5
Very close	NE vs CLE 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	45–7	W	O44.5
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Very close	PHI vs NO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	40–29	W	O42
Very close	TEN vs NO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	23–21	L	O42.5
Very close	NYG vs CAR 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	19–16	W	U43.5
Very close	JAX vs NYG 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–23	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLWWL	4-6	40%	1-4	0-2
TB LLWWW	7-4	64%	2-3	1-2

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOUUO	5-4-1	56%	7-8
TB OOOOU	5-6	45%	8-7

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 46% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%
TB	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NO 28–23 TB NO leads · 51 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ New Orleans Saints 9	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.8 →+0.2▼ 0.6#12

TB+0.3 →−0.3▼ 0.6#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

#16

Offense

◀ NO better

#19

Defense

◀ NO better

#21

+0.3 #9

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.7 #1

66 plays #7

Pace

◀ NO faster

62 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #14	20.1 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.10 #19	5.56 #26	NO
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	−0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	42% #14	45% #27	NO

When TB has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	TB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #17	19.8 #9	NO
Yards / play	5.08 #20	5.11 #14	NO
EPA / play	0.00 #12	−0.08 #8	Even
Success rate	40% #27	39% #4	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.0 #20	6.1 #19	10.1 #21	4.9 #10	7.1 #9	12.0 #10
TB allowed	4.2 #17	5.1 #6	9.3 #6	5.2 #23	5.7 #11	10.9 #15

TB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.8 #26	7.6 #10	10.4 #16	4.7 #12	6.6 #13	11.3 #15
NO allowed	5.2 #25	6.9 #18	12.1 #22	2.3 #2	5.3 #9	7.7 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.