Falcons @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

7-9 · Power #24

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

8-8 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -3

✓ NO W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 21–25 NO

✓ NO (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -3

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 75%, covered 58% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -3

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 3-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 5, covered 1, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 48–17; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 3.1; 43.6 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–16	L	U41
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	SF vs WSH 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	15–23	L	U43.5
Very close	GB vs TB 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	20–34	L	O41
Very close	NE vs MIA 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	23–21	L	O41.5
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Very close	IND vs LV 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	23–20	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL WLLWL	4-7	36%	2-4	2-1
NO LWWLW	5-6	45%	3-2	4-4

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOUUO	5-6	45%	7-9
NO OUUOU	5-5-1	50%	8-8

Went over in Q3. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NO	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ATL 23–32 NO NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2023	New Orleans Saints 15 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	NO -2	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →−1.4▼ 3.5#22

NO+0.8 →+0.4▼ 0.4#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

ATL

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

NO better ▶

#16

Defense

Even

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

NO better ▶

+0.5 #7

65 plays #10

Pace

NO faster ▶

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	ATL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	19.4 #7	NO
Yards / play	5.13 #18	5.20 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #24	−0.09 #6	NO
Success rate	41% #20	39% #4	NO

When NO has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	NO off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #14	20.3 #9	ATL
Yards / play	5.05 #21	4.94 #6	ATL
EPA / play	−0.03 #14	−0.08 #8	ATL
Success rate	42% #16	39% #3	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	2.9 #25	5.5 #23	8.4 #28	3.0 #27	7.6 #5	10.6 #18
NO allowed	4.9 #22	6.5 #12	11.4 #19	2.2 #2	5.8 #14	8.0 #4

NO scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.2 #19	6.3 #19	10.5 #17	4.8 #10	6.8 #11	11.6 #10
ATL allowed	3.6 #11	7.4 #20	11.0 #17	4.8 #20	4.5 #5	9.3 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.