Vikings @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

7-9 · Power #15

final

Final

Detroit Lions

11-5 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -3.5

✓ DET W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 24–28 DET

✓ DET (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDET -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 58% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 30–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 3.3; 44.4 points a game (usually 45.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs CLE 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	23–10	W	U47
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	22–17	W	U47
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	27–33	L	O47
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	16–10	W	U47.5
Very close	MIN vs NYG 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-3	24–31	L	O48
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	MIN vs CAR 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–27	L	O50
Very close	MIA vs GB 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–26	L	U49.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–17	W	O45
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	24–27	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN LPPLL	6-3-2	67%	4-0-2	4-2-1
DET WLWWW	7-4	64%	2-2	6-3

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UUOOO	5-6	45%	7-9
DET OUOOU	7-4	64%	11-5

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	5-5 50%	5-3-2 63%	5-5 50%
DET	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIN 36–18 DET MIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 24 2023	Detroit Lions 30 @ Minnesota Vikings 24	DET -2.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.3 →−0.3–#15

DET+1.7 →+3.3▲ 1.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

MIN

Longer bar = better

DET

#16

Offense

DET better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ MIN better

#20

−0.6 #29

Turnovers

DET better ▶

−0.1 #19

63 plays #19

Pace

DET faster ▶

68 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #22	23.4 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #12	5.45 #25	MIN
EPA / play	−0.04 #17	−0.03 #17	Even
Success rate	43% #13	43% #16	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #5	20.8 #12	DET
Yards / play	5.86 #3	5.08 #10	DET
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.03 #18	DET
Success rate	46% #6	43% #17	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.5 #28	7.3 #12	9.8 #22	5.8 #7	4.7 #26	10.5 #20
DET allowed	4.9 #22	5.3 #5	10.2 #11	6.5 #31	6.4 #18	12.9 #27

DET scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.1 #5	8.7 #6	14.8 #5	4.1 #21	8.0 #3	12.1 #9
MIN allowed	3.5 #8	5.8 #8	9.3 #5	5.6 #27	5.7 #12	11.3 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.