Rams @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2023)

Sun, Jan 14, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTNFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

10-7 · Power #9

final

Final

Detroit Lions

12-5 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -3

✓ LAR W

Total

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 25–28 DET

✓ DET (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -3

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDET -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 74%, covered 59% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -3

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 24–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 53, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 3.1; 55.6 points a game (usually 45.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	20–27	L	U53.5
Very close	GB vs TEN 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	40–14	W	O52.5
Very close	IND vs TEN 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	26–45	L	O51.5
Very close	SF vs SEA 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–28	L	U52
Very close	TEN vs CLE 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	35–41	L	O54
Very close	KC vs BUF 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	38–24	W	O55.5
Very close	DAL vs SF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	17–23	L	U51.5
Very close	BAL vs LAC 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	34–6	W	U51
Very close	ARI vs BUF 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	32–30	L	O56
Very close	MIN vs CAR 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	28–27	L	O50

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WWWLW	7-5	58%	3-3	2-2
DET LWWWW	8-4	67%	3-2	7-3

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OUOOO	7-5	58%	10-7
DET UOOUO	8-4	67%	12-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
DET	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 7–7 DET Series tied · 14 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+7.8 →+1.3▼ 6.5#9

DET+1.7 →+3.2▲ 1.5#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

LAR

Longer bar = better

DET

Offense

DET better ▶

#18

Defense

Even

#21

−0.2 #22

Turnovers

DET better ▶

0.0 #17

64 plays #12

Pace

DET faster ▶

67 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #9	23.2 #23	LAR
Yards / play	5.58 #8	5.51 #26	LAR
EPA / play	+0.04 #9	−0.03 #17	LAR
Success rate	45% #9	43% #16	LAR

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #5	22.2 #18	DET
Yards / play	5.90 #3	5.33 #19	DET
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.01 #22	DET
Success rate	46% #6	43% #14	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.9 #10	7.0 #14	11.9 #10	4.9 #9	6.6 #12	11.5 #12
DET allowed	4.6 #21	5.4 #4	9.9 #11	6.5 #32	6.4 #20	12.9 #30

DET scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.5 #3	8.2 #7	14.7 #5	4.3 #17	8.1 #3	12.4 #8
LAR allowed	4.3 #20	6.9 #16	11.2 #15	3.3 #7	7.4 #27	10.6 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.