Rams @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff51°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

9-7 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

12-4 · Power #1

final

Closing spread

SF -5.5

✓ LAR W

Total

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 21–27 SF

✗ SF (72%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -5.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 58% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -5.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 5.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 21–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 40, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 6; 51.1 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARI vs CAR 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-7	10–34	L	O41.5
Close	SF vs WSH 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	37–20	W	O37.5
Close	BUF vs MIA 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	32–29	L	O42
Close	BAL vs CLE 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	31–33	L	O39
Close	PIT vs WSH 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	17–23	L	U44
Loose	PHI vs DAL 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	26–17	W	O42.5
Loose	BUF vs MIN 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	30–33	L	O46
Loose	BUF vs NE 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	47–17	W	O43
Loose	PHI vs NO 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar spread & rest	-5	10–20	L	U41.5
Loose	PHI vs TEN 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	35–10	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WWWWL	6-5	55%	2-3	1-2
SF WLWLW	5-6	45%	0-4	5-6

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OOUOO	6-5	55%	9-7
SF OUOOU	6-5	55%	12-4

Went over in Q4. Of 44 earlier overs in games with totals 37–43, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAR 24–31 SF (1 tied) SF leads · 56 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 30 @ Los Angeles Rams 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+7.8 →+0.9▼ 6.9#10

SF+7.9 →+7.4▼ 0.5#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

LAR

Longer bar = better

Offense

SF better ▶

#18

Defense

SF better ▶

−0.2 #22

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.6 #3

65 plays #12

Pace

◀ LAR faster

60 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #8	17.3 #2	SF
Yards / play	5.67 #6	5.03 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #9	−0.09 #5	Even
Success rate	44% #8	41% #10	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #2	22.3 #19	SF
Yards / play	6.70 #1	5.34 #19	SF
EPA / play	+0.17 #1	−0.02 #20	SF
Success rate	51% #1	42% #12	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.8 #13	7.4 #10	12.3 #11	4.8 #12	6.5 #16	11.3 #12
SF allowed	3.5 #8	6.0 #9	9.5 #8	4.6 #17	3.3 #1	7.8 #5

SF scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.8 #2	8.7 #6	15.4 #3	6.1 #5	7.9 #4	14.0 #1
LAR allowed	4.1 #19	6.5 #13	10.6 #14	3.5 #9	7.8 #29	11.3 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.