Jaguars @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff44°F12 mphgusts 23Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

9-7 · Power #12

final

Final

Tennessee Titans

5-11 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

✓ TEN W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 23–20 TEN

✗ JAX (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -3.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJAX -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 52% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -3.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 3.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEN won 28–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 41, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3.3; 45.5 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA @ TEN 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–17	P	U42.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	11–34	L	O39
Very close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Very close	GB @ CAR 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	33–30	L	O39.5
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	19–20	L	U44
Very close	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	14–22	L	U41
Very close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	30–20	W	O40
Very close	DET @ CAR 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–37	L	O43.5
Very close	SF @ CHI 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	33–22	W	O40
Very close	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	23–10	W	U41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LLLLW	6-5	55%	3-2	5-2
TEN LWLPL	3-7-1	30%	2-2-1	2-6-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OOUUU	5-6	45%	9-7
TEN OOUUU	4-6-1	40%	5-11

Went over in Q4. Of 43 earlier overs in games with totals 38–44, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
TEN	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 23–32 TEN TEN leads · 55 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2023	Tennessee Titans 14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 34	JAX -6.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+3.9 →+0.5▼ 3.4#11

TEN−0.8 →−3.2▼ 2.4#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

JAX

Longer bar = better

TEN

#17

Offense

◀ JAX better

#25

#16

Defense

Even

#18

−0.1 #20

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.4 #24

66 plays #6

Pace

◀ JAX faster

59 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #13	21.7 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.16 #16	5.18 #14	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #22	+0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	42% #18	43% #18	Even

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	TEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #28	21.4 #15	JAX
Yards / play	4.84 #26	5.38 #20	JAX
EPA / play	−0.06 #19	−0.04 #14	JAX
Success rate	39% #28	43% #15	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.6 #22	6.0 #22	9.6 #25	6.5 #2	6.2 #16	12.7 #6
TEN allowed	3.7 #12	5.4 #7	9.1 #4	5.5 #26	6.5 #19	12.0 #25

TEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.2 #24	6.5 #16	9.7 #24	3.3 #25	4.0 #31	7.3 #31
JAX allowed	2.3 #1	5.9 #9	8.2 #2	6.1 #29	7.0 #24	13.1 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.