Buccaneers @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game

Weather at kickoff52°F14 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8-8 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

2-14 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

TB -4.5

✓ TB W

Total

36.5

▼ Under · 9 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 22–17 CAR

✓ TB (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -4.5

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTB -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -4.5

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 4.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 9–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 9 points stayed under 36.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 4.3; 41.4 points a game (usually 46.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Very close	GB @ CAR 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	33–30	L	O39.5
Very close	GB @ NYG 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	22–24	L	O37
Very close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	30–20	W	O40
Very close	SF @ CHI 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	33–22	W	O40
Very close	HOU @ NYJ 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	6–30	L	O33.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-5	37–30	W	O39.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2023 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	11–34	L	O39
Close	WSH @ NYG 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	22–7	W	U36.5
Close	NE @ NYG 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	7–10	L	U36

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LWWWL	7-5	58%	5-1	1-3
CAR WLWWL	5-6	45%	3-2	5-6

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OOOUU	5-7	42%	8-8
CAR OUUOU	3-8	27%	2-14

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 33.5–39.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
CAR	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TB 23–25 CAR CAR leads · 48 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 3 2023	Carolina Panthers 18 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21	TB -3.5	CAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.3 →−0.6▼ 0.9#17

CAR−2.1 →−4.8▼ 2.7#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

CAR

#19

Offense

◀ TB better

#31

#21

Defense

Even

#22

+0.4 #9

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.4 #23

61 plays #25

Pace

CAR faster ▶

65 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #19	25.4 #30	TB
Yards / play	5.18 #15	5.01 #7	CAR
EPA / play	−0.01 #13	+0.03 #27	TB
Success rate	40% #27	44% #22	CAR

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	CAR off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #31	20.3 #10	TB
Yards / play	4.12 #32	5.48 #26	TB
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	−0.01 #21	TB
Success rate	38% #30	44% #25	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.6 #27	7.1 #13	9.8 #22	4.4 #16	7.0 #8	11.4 #11
CAR allowed	3.4 #4	9.8 #32	13.2 #27	4.4 #14	7.8 #28	12.3 #26

CAR scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.3 #31	4.2 #31	6.5 #31	3.1 #26	5.2 #23	8.3 #27
TB allowed	4.4 #19	5.4 #6	9.8 #8	5.1 #23	5.5 #10	10.6 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.