Eagles @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2023)

Mon, Jan 15, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTNFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff64°F4 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

11-6 · Power #16

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9-8 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -3

✓ TB W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 26–23 TB

✗ PHI (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -3

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePHI -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 55% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -3

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 3-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 32–9 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 43, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 2.9; 40.2 points a game (usually 45.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	20–23	L	U44
Very close	SEA @ TEN 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–17	P	U42.5
Very close	MIN @ CHI 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	19–13	W	U44.5
Very close	DET @ CAR 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	23–37	L	O43.5
Very close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Very close	LV @ CLE 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–14	L	U42
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–22	L	U41
Very close	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Very close	BAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	27–28	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLLL	4-8-1	33%	1-4-1	3-6-1
TB WWWLW	8-5	62%	2-4	6-2

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI UUOOU	7-6	54%	11-6
TB OOUUU	5-8	38%	9-8

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 45% of games with totals 40–46 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%
TB	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PHI 9–10 TB TB leads · 19 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 25 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 25 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI0.0 →+0.5▲ 0.5#11

TB+0.3 →−0.4▼ 0.7#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

PHI

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ PHI better

#20

#27

Defense

TB better ▶

#16

−0.6 #26

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.5 #8

65 plays #7

Pace

◀ PHI faster

62 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #7	19.1 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #13	5.41 #22	PHI
EPA / play	+0.05 #8	−0.02 #17	PHI
Success rate	46% #7	43% #19	PHI

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #20	25.2 #30	TB
Yards / play	5.08 #20	5.48 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #14	+0.05 #29	TB
Success rate	40% #27	45% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	5.7 #5	6.1 #23	11.8 #12	6.1 #3	7.1 #8	13.1 #3
TB allowed	4.1 #17	5.1 #3	9.2 #3	4.8 #20	5.2 #7	9.9 #11

TB scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.5 #27	7.1 #14	9.5 #24	4.2 #20	6.8 #11	10.9 #14
PHI allowed	3.4 #7	9.4 #31	12.7 #26	4.6 #18	7.7 #30	12.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.