Browns @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2023)

Sat, Jan 13, 2024, 4:30 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

11-6 · Power #8

final

Final

Houston Texans

10-7 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 25–23 HOU

✗ CLE (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -2.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLE -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 51% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -2.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 2.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 45–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 45, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 2.6; 51 points a game (usually 45.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	20–23	L	U44
Very close	DAL @ TB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-3	31–14	W	U45.5
Very close	SF @ TEN 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	17–20	L	U45.5
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	47–42	W	O45.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	30–31	L	O46.5
Very close	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5
Very close	SF @ SEA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	23–30	L	O45
Very close	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Very close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2	6–23	L	U43
Very close	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	40–3	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WWWWL	8-4-1	67%	2-4-1	6-1
HOU LWLWW	6-6	50%	3-4	3-2

Venue/role: CLE away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUOOO	10-3	77%	11-6
HOU OUOUU	4-8	33%	10-7

Went over in Q3. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 42–48, 13% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 7–8 HOU HOU leads · 15 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 24 2023	Cleveland Browns 36 @ Houston Texans 22	CLE -3	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+6.0 →+2.8▼ 3.2#8

HOU−2.2 →0.0▲ 2.2#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

CLE

Longer bar = better

HOU

#24

Offense

HOU better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ CLE better

#12

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.6 #7

70 plays #1

Pace

◀ CLE faster

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	CLE off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #10	20.8 #11	Even
Yards / play	4.81 #28	5.21 #15	HOU
EPA / play	−0.14 #28	−0.04 #13	HOU
Success rate	39% #29	41% #7	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	HOU off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #14	21.3 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.37 #13	4.57 #2	CLE
EPA / play	−0.03 #15	−0.19 #1	CLE
Success rate	41% #23	35% #1	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	4.4 #16	8.2 #7	12.5 #9	4.1 #19	6.6 #12	10.8 #15
HOU allowed	4.8 #23	4.2 #1	8.9 #2	6.4 #31	5.5 #9	11.8 #26

HOU scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.0 #20	7.0 #13	11.0 #15	4.1 #22	6.9 #9	11.0 #13
CLE allowed	6.3 #31	5.1 #4	11.4 #18	3.6 #9	6.3 #18	9.9 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.