Texans @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Divisional Playoffs, 2023)

Sat, Jan 20, 2024, 4:30 PM ESTAFC Divisional Playoffs · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff21°F13 mphgusts 24DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

11-7 · Power #13

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

13-4 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -10

✓ BAL W

Total

Push · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 18–28 BAL

✓ BAL (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -10

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -10

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 10-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points landed on 44, as in 0 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 10.3; 41.5 points a game (usually 46.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF vs SEA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & season form	-9	41–23	W	O42
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-10	20–12	L	U43
Close	PHI vs WSH 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-11	21–32	L	O43
Close	SF vs NO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & team ratings	-9	13–0	W	U43.5
Close	PIT vs BAL 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	19–14	L	U41.5
Close	KC vs PIT 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-10.5	36–10	W	O44.5
Close	DAL vs IND 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-11	54–19	W	O44.5
Close	DAL vs NYG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	28–20	L	O45.5
Close	BUF vs GB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	27–17	L	U47
Close	TB vs NO 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar total	-11.5	0–9	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLWWW	7-6	54%	3-2	4-2
BAL LWWWL	8-4	67%	4-3	7-3

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOUUO	5-8	38%	11-7
BAL OUOOU	7-5	58%	13-4

In 101 games with totals 41–47, 46% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 15% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
BAL	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 3–13 BAL BAL leads · 16 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Houston Texans 9 @ Baltimore Ravens 25	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.2 →+0.7▲ 2.9#12

BAL+2.2 →+6.1▲ 3.9#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

HOU

Longer bar = better

BAL

#16

Offense

BAL better ▶

#11

Defense

BAL better ▶

+0.7 #3

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #1

63 plays #18

Pace

Even

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	HOU off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #11	16.5 #1	BAL
Yards / play	5.48 #12	4.62 #2	BAL
EPA / play	−0.02 #15	−0.15 #2	BAL
Success rate	41% #24	40% #6	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #3	20.4 #10	BAL
Yards / play	5.85 #4	5.17 #14	BAL
EPA / play	+0.07 #7	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	47% #4	41% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.3 #19	7.4 #10	11.7 #12	4.6 #13	6.9 #8	11.6 #11
BAL allowed	2.8 #2	4.2 #1	7.0 #1	2.4 #3	6.9 #24	9.3 #8

BAL scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	6.2 #4	9.1 #4	15.4 #4	5.8 #4	6.9 #9	12.7 #5
HOU allowed	4.9 #23	4.3 #2	9.2 #4	6.0 #29	5.2 #7	11.2 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.